Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19

This study proposes to use the fractional-order accumulation grey model (FGM) combined with the fractional-order buffer operator to predict the cumulative confirmed cases in different stages of COVID-19. In the early stages of COVID-19 outbreak, when the cumulative confirmed cases increased rapidly,...

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Autores principales:	Yanhui Chen, Minglei Zhang, Kai Lisa Lo, Jackson Jinhong Mi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Hindawi Limited 2021
Materias:	Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e8ce5aadf4f4468a871e0ccb8d1bd995
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e8ce5aadf4f4468a871e0ccb8d1bd9952021-11-08T02:35:18ZForecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-192314-478510.1155/2021/6178629https://doaj.org/article/e8ce5aadf4f4468a871e0ccb8d1bd9952021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6178629https://doaj.org/toc/2314-4785This study proposes to use the fractional-order accumulation grey model (FGM) combined with the fractional-order buffer operator to predict the cumulative confirmed cases in different stages of COVID-19. In the early stages of COVID-19 outbreak, when the cumulative confirmed cases increased rapidly, we used the strengthening buffer operator in the prediction process. After the government’s prevention measures started to take effect, the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases slows down. Therefore, the weakening buffer operator is applied in the prediction process. The fractional order of the buffer operator is derived from the historical data, which are more relevant. The empirical analysis of seven countries’ data shows that the FGM with the fractional-order buffer operator achieves the best results for most cases. The fractional-order buffer operator improves the prediction accuracy of the FGM in this study. Our study also suggests a practical way for predicting the trend of epidemic diseases.Yanhui ChenMinglei ZhangKai Lisa LoJackson Jinhong MiHindawi LimitedarticleMathematicsQA1-939ENJournal of Mathematics, Vol 2021 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	Mathematics QA1-939 Yanhui Chen Minglei Zhang Kai Lisa Lo Jackson Jinhong Mi Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19
description	This study proposes to use the fractional-order accumulation grey model (FGM) combined with the fractional-order buffer operator to predict the cumulative confirmed cases in different stages of COVID-19. In the early stages of COVID-19 outbreak, when the cumulative confirmed cases increased rapidly, we used the strengthening buffer operator in the prediction process. After the government’s prevention measures started to take effect, the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases slows down. Therefore, the weakening buffer operator is applied in the prediction process. The fractional order of the buffer operator is derived from the historical data, which are more relevant. The empirical analysis of seven countries’ data shows that the FGM with the fractional-order buffer operator achieves the best results for most cases. The fractional-order buffer operator improves the prediction accuracy of the FGM in this study. Our study also suggests a practical way for predicting the trend of epidemic diseases.
format	article
author	Yanhui Chen Minglei Zhang Kai Lisa Lo Jackson Jinhong Mi
author_facet	Yanhui Chen Minglei Zhang Kai Lisa Lo Jackson Jinhong Mi
author_sort	Yanhui Chen
title	Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19
title_short	Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19
title_full	Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19
title_fullStr	Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19
title_sort	forecasting the cumulative confirmed cases with the fgm and fractional-order buffer operator in different stages of covid-19
publisher	Hindawi Limited
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e8ce5aadf4f4468a871e0ccb8d1bd995
work_keys_str_mv	AT yanhuichen forecastingthecumulativeconfirmedcaseswiththefgmandfractionalorderbufferoperatorindifferentstagesofcovid19 AT mingleizhang forecastingthecumulativeconfirmedcaseswiththefgmandfractionalorderbufferoperatorindifferentstagesofcovid19 AT kailisalo forecastingthecumulativeconfirmedcaseswiththefgmandfractionalorderbufferoperatorindifferentstagesofcovid19 AT jacksonjinhongmi forecastingthecumulativeconfirmedcaseswiththefgmandfractionalorderbufferoperatorindifferentstagesofcovid19
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Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19

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