California Drought Outlooks Based on Climate Change Models’ Effects on Water Availability

Future streamflow in California is evaluated based on eight climate projections models and the effects on water availability. The unimpaired projected streamflow for eleven California rivers, collected from Cal-Adapt, are compared with unimpaired historical flows (1950–2015) using eight climate mode...

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Autores principales:	Lauren Lynam, Thomas Piechota
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	drought climate water hydrology streamflow Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e900849960364b3db385386356565a4b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e900849960364b3db385386356565a4b2021-11-25T19:15:31ZCalifornia Drought Outlooks Based on Climate Change Models’ Effects on Water Availability10.3390/w132232112073-4441https://doaj.org/article/e900849960364b3db385386356565a4b2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/22/3211https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441Future streamflow in California is evaluated based on eight climate projections models and the effects on water availability. The unimpaired projected streamflow for eleven California rivers, collected from Cal-Adapt, are compared with unimpaired historical flows (1950–2015) using eight climate model projections (2020–2099) identified as representative as possible future scenarios; Warm Dry RCP 4.5, Average RCP 4.5, Cool Wet RCP 4.5, Other RCP 4.5, Warm Dry RCP 8.5, Average RCP 8.5, Cool Wet RCP 8.5, and Other RCP 8.5. Projected drought deficits (or magnitudes), durations, and intensities are statistically tested against historical values to determine significance of differences between past streamflow and future streamflow. The models show significant differences between historical and projected streamflow with all three drought categories (deficit, duration, intensity), using difference in means <i>t</i>-tests. Warm Dry and Other simulations are projected to have larger droughts (2–3 times larger) than the historical record. Average and Cool Wet simulations are projected to have fewer droughts than the historical period. Results are consistent for 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios that represent two different greenhouse gas emission levels. Potential impacts of such streamflow variations are discussed.Lauren LynamThomas PiechotaMDPI AGarticledroughtclimatewaterhydrologystreamflowHydraulic engineeringTC1-978Water supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500ENWater, Vol 13, Iss 3211, p 3211 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	drought climate water hydrology streamflow Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
spellingShingle	drought climate water hydrology streamflow Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Lauren Lynam Thomas Piechota California Drought Outlooks Based on Climate Change Models’ Effects on Water Availability
description	Future streamflow in California is evaluated based on eight climate projections models and the effects on water availability. The unimpaired projected streamflow for eleven California rivers, collected from Cal-Adapt, are compared with unimpaired historical flows (1950–2015) using eight climate model projections (2020–2099) identified as representative as possible future scenarios; Warm Dry RCP 4.5, Average RCP 4.5, Cool Wet RCP 4.5, Other RCP 4.5, Warm Dry RCP 8.5, Average RCP 8.5, Cool Wet RCP 8.5, and Other RCP 8.5. Projected drought deficits (or magnitudes), durations, and intensities are statistically tested against historical values to determine significance of differences between past streamflow and future streamflow. The models show significant differences between historical and projected streamflow with all three drought categories (deficit, duration, intensity), using difference in means <i>t</i>-tests. Warm Dry and Other simulations are projected to have larger droughts (2–3 times larger) than the historical record. Average and Cool Wet simulations are projected to have fewer droughts than the historical period. Results are consistent for 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios that represent two different greenhouse gas emission levels. Potential impacts of such streamflow variations are discussed.
format	article
author	Lauren Lynam Thomas Piechota
author_facet	Lauren Lynam Thomas Piechota
author_sort	Lauren Lynam
title	California Drought Outlooks Based on Climate Change Models’ Effects on Water Availability
title_short	California Drought Outlooks Based on Climate Change Models’ Effects on Water Availability
title_full	California Drought Outlooks Based on Climate Change Models’ Effects on Water Availability
title_fullStr	California Drought Outlooks Based on Climate Change Models’ Effects on Water Availability
title_full_unstemmed	California Drought Outlooks Based on Climate Change Models’ Effects on Water Availability
title_sort	california drought outlooks based on climate change models’ effects on water availability
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e900849960364b3db385386356565a4b
work_keys_str_mv	AT laurenlynam californiadroughtoutlooksbasedonclimatechangemodelseffectsonwateravailability AT thomaspiechota californiadroughtoutlooksbasedonclimatechangemodelseffectsonwateravailability
_version_	1718410127872098304

California Drought Outlooks Based on Climate Change Models’ Effects on Water Availability

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