Mutual relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates

Abstract Background The number of SARS-CoV-2 tests conversely to other factors, such as age of population or comorbidities, influencing SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and fatality rates, can be increased or decreased by decision makers depending on the development of the pandemic, operational capacity, and fi...

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Autores principales:	Piotr Korneta, Janusz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Jarosław Domański
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	SARS-CoV-2 Testing strategy Pandemic Power law Probabilistic approach Multi Theil Sen Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e933df4baaa54489b91f6f95f307757d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e933df4baaa54489b91f6f95f307757d2021-11-08T10:44:15ZMutual relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates10.1186/s12889-021-12021-y1471-2458https://doaj.org/article/e933df4baaa54489b91f6f95f307757d2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-12021-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/1471-2458Abstract Background The number of SARS-CoV-2 tests conversely to other factors, such as age of population or comorbidities, influencing SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and fatality rates, can be increased or decreased by decision makers depending on the development of the pandemic, operational capacity, and financial restraints. The key objective of this study is to identify and describe, within the probabilistic approach, the relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers and the mortality and morbidity rates. Methods The study is based on a statistical analysis of 1058 monthly observations relating to 107 countries, from six different continents, in an 11-month period from March 2020 to January 2021. The variable utilised can be defined as the number of tests performed in a given country in 1 month, to the number of cases reported in a prior month and morbidities and mortalities per 1 million population. The probabilities of different mortality and morbidity rates for different test numbers were determined by moving percentiles and fitted by the power law and by the three-segment piecewise-linear approximation based on Theil Sen trend lines. Results We have identified that for a given probability the dependence of mortality and morbidity rates on SARS-CoV-2 test rates follows a power law and it is well approximated by the three Theil Sen trend lines in the three test rate ranges. In all these ranges Spearman rho and Kendall tau-b rank correlation coefficients of test numbers and morbidity with fatality rates have values between − 0.5 and − 0.12 with p-values below 0.002. Conclusions According to the ABC classification: the most important, moderately important, and relatively unimportant ranges of test numbers for managing and control have been indicated based on the value of the Theil Sen trend line slope in the three SARS-CoV-2 test rate ranges identified. Recommendations for SARS-CoV-2 testing strategy are provided.Piotr KornetaJanusz Zawiła-NiedźwieckiJarosław DomańskiBMCarticleSARS-CoV-2Testing strategyPandemicPower lawProbabilistic approachMulti Theil SenPublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENBMC Public Health, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	SARS-CoV-2 Testing strategy Pandemic Power law Probabilistic approach Multi Theil Sen Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	SARS-CoV-2 Testing strategy Pandemic Power law Probabilistic approach Multi Theil Sen Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Piotr Korneta Janusz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki Jarosław Domański Mutual relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates
description	Abstract Background The number of SARS-CoV-2 tests conversely to other factors, such as age of population or comorbidities, influencing SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and fatality rates, can be increased or decreased by decision makers depending on the development of the pandemic, operational capacity, and financial restraints. The key objective of this study is to identify and describe, within the probabilistic approach, the relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers and the mortality and morbidity rates. Methods The study is based on a statistical analysis of 1058 monthly observations relating to 107 countries, from six different continents, in an 11-month period from March 2020 to January 2021. The variable utilised can be defined as the number of tests performed in a given country in 1 month, to the number of cases reported in a prior month and morbidities and mortalities per 1 million population. The probabilities of different mortality and morbidity rates for different test numbers were determined by moving percentiles and fitted by the power law and by the three-segment piecewise-linear approximation based on Theil Sen trend lines. Results We have identified that for a given probability the dependence of mortality and morbidity rates on SARS-CoV-2 test rates follows a power law and it is well approximated by the three Theil Sen trend lines in the three test rate ranges. In all these ranges Spearman rho and Kendall tau-b rank correlation coefficients of test numbers and morbidity with fatality rates have values between − 0.5 and − 0.12 with p-values below 0.002. Conclusions According to the ABC classification: the most important, moderately important, and relatively unimportant ranges of test numbers for managing and control have been indicated based on the value of the Theil Sen trend line slope in the three SARS-CoV-2 test rate ranges identified. Recommendations for SARS-CoV-2 testing strategy are provided.
format	article
author	Piotr Korneta Janusz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki Jarosław Domański
author_facet	Piotr Korneta Janusz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki Jarosław Domański
author_sort	Piotr Korneta
title	Mutual relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates
title_short	Mutual relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates
title_full	Mutual relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates
title_fullStr	Mutual relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates
title_full_unstemmed	Mutual relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates
title_sort	mutual relationships between sars-cov-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e933df4baaa54489b91f6f95f307757d
work_keys_str_mv	AT piotrkorneta mutualrelationshipsbetweensarscov2testnumbersfatalityandmorbidityrates AT januszzawiłaniedzwiecki mutualrelationshipsbetweensarscov2testnumbersfatalityandmorbidityrates AT jarosławdomanski mutualrelationshipsbetweensarscov2testnumbersfatalityandmorbidityrates
_version_	1718442670504804352

Mutual relationships between SARS-CoV-2 test numbers, fatality and morbidity rates

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