Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs

Abstract The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name...

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Autores principales:	Claudius Gros, Roser Valenti, Lukas Schneider, Kilian Valenti, Daniel Gros
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e95b79e6db734cb6ac9132b0a712964f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e95b79e6db734cb6ac9132b0a712964f2021-12-02T16:36:12ZContainment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs10.1038/s41598-021-86072-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e95b79e6db734cb6ac9132b0a712964f2021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86072-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.Claudius GrosRoser ValentiLukas SchneiderKilian ValentiDaniel GrosNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Claudius Gros Roser Valenti Lukas Schneider Kilian Valenti Daniel Gros Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs
description	Abstract The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.
format	article
author	Claudius Gros Roser Valenti Lukas Schneider Kilian Valenti Daniel Gros
author_facet	Claudius Gros Roser Valenti Lukas Schneider Kilian Valenti Daniel Gros
author_sort	Claudius Gros
title	Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs
title_short	Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs
title_full	Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs
title_fullStr	Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs
title_full_unstemmed	Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs
title_sort	containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e95b79e6db734cb6ac9132b0a712964f
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Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs

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