Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supply by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, United States and India is investigated. We perform a numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calcul...

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Autor principal:	Leonardo S. Lima
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ea28b778c91c4a19bd292fc0de53d1e7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ea28b778c91c4a19bd292fc0de53d1e72021-12-02T17:47:04ZDynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease10.1038/s41598-021-91024-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ea28b778c91c4a19bd292fc0de53d1e72021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91024-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supply by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, United States and India is investigated. We perform a numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus for the estimating of novel cases daily, as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker–Planck equation for the probability density distribution of novel cases, P(N(t), t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô’s diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertainty in the official data and to the number of tests realized in populations of each country.Leonardo S. LimaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Leonardo S. Lima Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease
description	Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supply by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, United States and India is investigated. We perform a numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus for the estimating of novel cases daily, as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker–Planck equation for the probability density distribution of novel cases, P(N(t), t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô’s diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertainty in the official data and to the number of tests realized in populations of each country.
format	article
author	Leonardo S. Lima
author_facet	Leonardo S. Lima
author_sort	Leonardo S. Lima
title	Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease
title_short	Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease
title_full	Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease
title_fullStr	Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease
title_full_unstemmed	Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease
title_sort	dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ea28b778c91c4a19bd292fc0de53d1e7
work_keys_str_mv	AT leonardoslima dynamicsbasedonanalysisofpublicdataforspreadingofdisease
_version_	1718379562726850560

Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

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