Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.

<h4>Background</h4>The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking),...

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Autores principales:	Luis M Artigao-Rodenas, Julio A Carbayo-Herencia, Juan A Divisón-Garrote, Vicente F Gil-Guillén, Javier Massó-Orozco, Marta Simarro-Rueda, Francisca Molina-Escribano, Carlos Sanchis, Lucinio Carrión-Valero, Enrique López de Coca, David Caldevilla, Juan López-Abril, Concepción Carratalá-Munuera, Adriana Lopez-Pineda, Grupo de Enfermedades Vasculares de Albacete (GEVA)
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/eb0b0556c29e4041a1f75e890240a8ad
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:eb0b0556c29e4041a1f75e890240a8ad2021-11-18T08:56:42ZFramingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0073529https://doaj.org/article/eb0b0556c29e4041a1f75e890240a8ad2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24039972/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity.<h4>Methods</h4>The cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated.<h4>Results</h4>The mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001).<h4>Conclusions</h4>The results support the proposal for "reclassification" of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe.Luis M Artigao-RodenasJulio A Carbayo-HerenciaJuan A Divisón-GarroteVicente F Gil-GuillénJavier Massó-OrozcoMarta Simarro-RuedaFrancisca Molina-EscribanoCarlos SanchisLucinio Carrión-ValeroEnrique López de CocaDavid CaldevillaJuan López-AbrilConcepción Carratalá-MunueraAdriana Lopez-PinedaGrupo de Enfermedades Vasculares de Albacete (GEVA)Public Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 9, p e73529 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Luis M Artigao-Rodenas Julio A Carbayo-Herencia Juan A Divisón-Garrote Vicente F Gil-Guillén Javier Massó-Orozco Marta Simarro-Rueda Francisca Molina-Escribano Carlos Sanchis Lucinio Carrión-Valero Enrique López de Coca David Caldevilla Juan López-Abril Concepción Carratalá-Munuera Adriana Lopez-Pineda Grupo de Enfermedades Vasculares de Albacete (GEVA) Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.
description	<h4>Background</h4>The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity.<h4>Methods</h4>The cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated.<h4>Results</h4>The mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001).<h4>Conclusions</h4>The results support the proposal for "reclassification" of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe.
format	article
author	Luis M Artigao-Rodenas Julio A Carbayo-Herencia Juan A Divisón-Garrote Vicente F Gil-Guillén Javier Massó-Orozco Marta Simarro-Rueda Francisca Molina-Escribano Carlos Sanchis Lucinio Carrión-Valero Enrique López de Coca David Caldevilla Juan López-Abril Concepción Carratalá-Munuera Adriana Lopez-Pineda Grupo de Enfermedades Vasculares de Albacete (GEVA)
author_facet	Luis M Artigao-Rodenas Julio A Carbayo-Herencia Juan A Divisón-Garrote Vicente F Gil-Guillén Javier Massó-Orozco Marta Simarro-Rueda Francisca Molina-Escribano Carlos Sanchis Lucinio Carrión-Valero Enrique López de Coca David Caldevilla Juan López-Abril Concepción Carratalá-Munuera Adriana Lopez-Pineda Grupo de Enfermedades Vasculares de Albacete (GEVA)
author_sort	Luis M Artigao-Rodenas
title	Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.
title_short	Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.
title_full	Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.
title_fullStr	Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.
title_full_unstemmed	Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.
title_sort	framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern europe.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/eb0b0556c29e4041a1f75e890240a8ad
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Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.

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