Benchmarks for Needed Psychiatric Beds for the United States: A Test of a Predictive Analytics Model

The ideal balanced mental health service system presupposes that planners can determine the need for various required services. The history of deinstitutionalization has shown that one of the most difficult such determinations involves the number of needed psychiatric beds for various localities. Hi...

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Autor principal:	Christopher G. Hudson
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	psychiatric beds inpatient care benchmarks psychiatric deinstitutionalization predictive analytics needs assessment Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/eb796f66461141158558fcce6dc6d4d1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:eb796f66461141158558fcce6dc6d4d12021-11-25T17:51:58ZBenchmarks for Needed Psychiatric Beds for the United States: A Test of a Predictive Analytics Model10.3390/ijerph1822122051660-46011661-7827https://doaj.org/article/eb796f66461141158558fcce6dc6d4d12021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/22/12205https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601The ideal balanced mental health service system presupposes that planners can determine the need for various required services. The history of deinstitutionalization has shown that one of the most difficult such determinations involves the number of needed psychiatric beds for various localities. Historically, such assessments have been made on the basis of waiting and vacancy lists, expert estimates, or social indicator approaches that do not take into account local conditions. Specifically, this study aims to generate benchmarks or estimated rates of needed psychiatric beds for the 50 U.S. states by employing a predictive analytics methodology that uses nonlinear regression. Data used were secured primarily from the U.S. Census’ American Community Survey and from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration. Key predictors used were indicators of community mental health (CMH) service coverage, mental health disability in the adult population, longevity from birth, and the percentage of the 15+ who were married in 2018. The model was then used to calculate predicted bed rates based on the ‘what-if’ assumption of an optimal level of CMH service availability. The final model revealed an overall rate of needed beds of 34.9 per 100,000 population, or between 28.1 and 41.7. In total, 32% of the states provide inpatient psychiatric care at a level less than the estimated need; 28% at a level in excess of the need; with the remainder at a level within 95% confidence limits of the estimated need. These projections are in the low range of prior estimates, ranging from 33.8 to 64.1 since the 1980s. The study demonstrates the possibility of using predictive analytics to generate individualized estimates for a variety of service modalities for a range of localities.Christopher G. HudsonMDPI AGarticlepsychiatric bedsinpatient carebenchmarkspsychiatric deinstitutionalizationpredictive analyticsneeds assessmentMedicineRENInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 12205, p 12205 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	psychiatric beds inpatient care benchmarks psychiatric deinstitutionalization predictive analytics needs assessment Medicine R
spellingShingle	psychiatric beds inpatient care benchmarks psychiatric deinstitutionalization predictive analytics needs assessment Medicine R Christopher G. Hudson Benchmarks for Needed Psychiatric Beds for the United States: A Test of a Predictive Analytics Model
description	The ideal balanced mental health service system presupposes that planners can determine the need for various required services. The history of deinstitutionalization has shown that one of the most difficult such determinations involves the number of needed psychiatric beds for various localities. Historically, such assessments have been made on the basis of waiting and vacancy lists, expert estimates, or social indicator approaches that do not take into account local conditions. Specifically, this study aims to generate benchmarks or estimated rates of needed psychiatric beds for the 50 U.S. states by employing a predictive analytics methodology that uses nonlinear regression. Data used were secured primarily from the U.S. Census’ American Community Survey and from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration. Key predictors used were indicators of community mental health (CMH) service coverage, mental health disability in the adult population, longevity from birth, and the percentage of the 15+ who were married in 2018. The model was then used to calculate predicted bed rates based on the ‘what-if’ assumption of an optimal level of CMH service availability. The final model revealed an overall rate of needed beds of 34.9 per 100,000 population, or between 28.1 and 41.7. In total, 32% of the states provide inpatient psychiatric care at a level less than the estimated need; 28% at a level in excess of the need; with the remainder at a level within 95% confidence limits of the estimated need. These projections are in the low range of prior estimates, ranging from 33.8 to 64.1 since the 1980s. The study demonstrates the possibility of using predictive analytics to generate individualized estimates for a variety of service modalities for a range of localities.
format	article
author	Christopher G. Hudson
author_facet	Christopher G. Hudson
author_sort	Christopher G. Hudson
title	Benchmarks for Needed Psychiatric Beds for the United States: A Test of a Predictive Analytics Model
title_short	Benchmarks for Needed Psychiatric Beds for the United States: A Test of a Predictive Analytics Model
title_full	Benchmarks for Needed Psychiatric Beds for the United States: A Test of a Predictive Analytics Model
title_fullStr	Benchmarks for Needed Psychiatric Beds for the United States: A Test of a Predictive Analytics Model
title_full_unstemmed	Benchmarks for Needed Psychiatric Beds for the United States: A Test of a Predictive Analytics Model
title_sort	benchmarks for needed psychiatric beds for the united states: a test of a predictive analytics model
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/eb796f66461141158558fcce6dc6d4d1
work_keys_str_mv	AT christopherghudson benchmarksforneededpsychiatricbedsfortheunitedstatesatestofapredictiveanalyticsmodel
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Benchmarks for Needed Psychiatric Beds for the United States: A Test of a Predictive Analytics Model

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