Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain

Global change is expected to impact on the distribution and abundance of forests. Spain represents the southwestern limit of distribution for several types of deciduous forests and, as part of the Mediterranean Basin, it has all the characteristics to be affected by climate change. This study analys...

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Autores principales:	S. del Río, R. Canas, E. Cano, A. Cano-Ortiz, C. Musarella, C. Pinto-Gomes, A. Penas
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Bioclimatology Biogeography Climate change Deciduous forests Habitat suitability Spain Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ec1464231f094bbd936b37464d40dc05
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ec1464231f094bbd936b37464d40dc052021-12-01T05:00:37ZModelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108202https://doaj.org/article/ec1464231f094bbd936b37464d40dc052021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21008670https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XGlobal change is expected to impact on the distribution and abundance of forests. Spain represents the southwestern limit of distribution for several types of deciduous forests and, as part of the Mediterranean Basin, it has all the characteristics to be affected by climate change. This study analyses the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in four categories of deciduous forests: Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea (Matt.) Leibl., Quercus robur L. and Betula celtiberica Rothm. and Vasc. The approach combines an ensemble platform for species distribution models (SDMs) using three algorithms applied to four global circulation models (GCMs) driven by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Bioclimatic, biogeographic, soil and topographic variables were taken into consideration as predictors to build 320 single distribution models. Ensemble-forecasting models were then produced for each forest category and RCPs by computing a consensus of single-model projections. The adapted proposal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was also applied to deal with the uncertainty and notify the likelihood of the outcomes.The results revealed generalized losses in habitat suitability compared to current conditions for all the forest categories, which were more drastic for the RCP 8.5 emission pathway. Exceptions worth noting are forests of Fagus sylvatica (likelihood 25%-50%) and Quercus robur (likelihood 75%-100%) in the Orocantabrian biogeographic subprovince, and Quercus petraea formations in the Cantabrian Atlantic subprovince (likelihood 25%-50%). Betula celtiberica would suffer the largest losses of habitat suitability under the climate change scenarios analysed. The vulnerability analysis confirmed that the deciduous formations least affected by climate change in future will be the Orocantabrian forests, while the Pyrenean and Oroiberian communities are the most vulnerable.The models developed in this study provide decision-makers with basic information and a useful tool for designing plans for the conservation and management of these forests in order to mitigate the impact of climate change. The study also highlights the importance and usefulness of conducting analyses at the biogeographic level, since the effects of climate change may be different and require management and conservation policies at local level.S. del RíoR. CanasE. CanoA. Cano-OrtizC. MusarellaC. Pinto-GomesA. PenasElsevierarticleBioclimatologyBiogeographyClimate changeDeciduous forestsHabitat suitabilitySpainEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 131, Iss , Pp 108202- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Bioclimatology Biogeography Climate change Deciduous forests Habitat suitability Spain Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Bioclimatology Biogeography Climate change Deciduous forests Habitat suitability Spain Ecology QH540-549.5 S. del Río R. Canas E. Cano A. Cano-Ortiz C. Musarella C. Pinto-Gomes A. Penas Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain
description	Global change is expected to impact on the distribution and abundance of forests. Spain represents the southwestern limit of distribution for several types of deciduous forests and, as part of the Mediterranean Basin, it has all the characteristics to be affected by climate change. This study analyses the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in four categories of deciduous forests: Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea (Matt.) Leibl., Quercus robur L. and Betula celtiberica Rothm. and Vasc. The approach combines an ensemble platform for species distribution models (SDMs) using three algorithms applied to four global circulation models (GCMs) driven by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Bioclimatic, biogeographic, soil and topographic variables were taken into consideration as predictors to build 320 single distribution models. Ensemble-forecasting models were then produced for each forest category and RCPs by computing a consensus of single-model projections. The adapted proposal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was also applied to deal with the uncertainty and notify the likelihood of the outcomes.The results revealed generalized losses in habitat suitability compared to current conditions for all the forest categories, which were more drastic for the RCP 8.5 emission pathway. Exceptions worth noting are forests of Fagus sylvatica (likelihood 25%-50%) and Quercus robur (likelihood 75%-100%) in the Orocantabrian biogeographic subprovince, and Quercus petraea formations in the Cantabrian Atlantic subprovince (likelihood 25%-50%). Betula celtiberica would suffer the largest losses of habitat suitability under the climate change scenarios analysed. The vulnerability analysis confirmed that the deciduous formations least affected by climate change in future will be the Orocantabrian forests, while the Pyrenean and Oroiberian communities are the most vulnerable.The models developed in this study provide decision-makers with basic information and a useful tool for designing plans for the conservation and management of these forests in order to mitigate the impact of climate change. The study also highlights the importance and usefulness of conducting analyses at the biogeographic level, since the effects of climate change may be different and require management and conservation policies at local level.
format	article
author	S. del Río R. Canas E. Cano A. Cano-Ortiz C. Musarella C. Pinto-Gomes A. Penas
author_facet	S. del Río R. Canas E. Cano A. Cano-Ortiz C. Musarella C. Pinto-Gomes A. Penas
author_sort	S. del Río
title	Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain
title_short	Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain
title_full	Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain
title_fullStr	Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain
title_sort	modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in spain
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ec1464231f094bbd936b37464d40dc05
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Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain

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