Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change

Abstract Endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province in northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan are often rare and range-restricted. Because of these ranges, plants in the KK are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Species distribution m...

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Autores principales:	Mohammad Bagher Erfanian, Mostafa Sagharyan, Farshid Memariani, Hamid Ejtehadi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ec266c60faec4ebfb5cc37087d752c3d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ec266c60faec4ebfb5cc37087d752c3d2021-12-02T17:39:19ZPredicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change10.1038/s41598-021-88577-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ec266c60faec4ebfb5cc37087d752c3d2021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88577-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province in northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan are often rare and range-restricted. Because of these ranges, plants in the KK are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Species distribution modelling (SDM) can be used to assess the vulnerability of species under climate change. Here, we evaluated range size changes for three (critically) endangered endemic species that grow at various elevations (Nepeta binaloudensis, Phlomoides binaludensis, and Euphorbia ferdowsiana) using species distribution modelling. Using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and two Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), we predicted potential current and future (2050 and 2070) suitable habitats for each species. The ensemble model of nine algorithms was used to perform this prediction. Our results indicate that while two of species investigated would benefit from range expansion in the future, P. binaludensis will experience range contraction. The range of E. ferdowsiana will remain limited to the Binalood mountains, but the other species will have suitable habitats in mountain ranges across the KK. Using management efforts (such as fencing) with a focus on providing elevational migration routes at local scales in the KK is necessary to conserve these species. Additionally, assisted migration among different mountains in the KK would be beneficial to conserve these plants. For E. ferdowsiana, genetic diversity storage employing seed banks and botanical garden preservation should be considered.Mohammad Bagher ErfanianMostafa SagharyanFarshid MemarianiHamid EjtehadiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Mohammad Bagher Erfanian Mostafa Sagharyan Farshid Memariani Hamid Ejtehadi Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
description	Abstract Endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province in northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan are often rare and range-restricted. Because of these ranges, plants in the KK are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Species distribution modelling (SDM) can be used to assess the vulnerability of species under climate change. Here, we evaluated range size changes for three (critically) endangered endemic species that grow at various elevations (Nepeta binaloudensis, Phlomoides binaludensis, and Euphorbia ferdowsiana) using species distribution modelling. Using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and two Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), we predicted potential current and future (2050 and 2070) suitable habitats for each species. The ensemble model of nine algorithms was used to perform this prediction. Our results indicate that while two of species investigated would benefit from range expansion in the future, P. binaludensis will experience range contraction. The range of E. ferdowsiana will remain limited to the Binalood mountains, but the other species will have suitable habitats in mountain ranges across the KK. Using management efforts (such as fencing) with a focus on providing elevational migration routes at local scales in the KK is necessary to conserve these species. Additionally, assisted migration among different mountains in the KK would be beneficial to conserve these plants. For E. ferdowsiana, genetic diversity storage employing seed banks and botanical garden preservation should be considered.
format	article
author	Mohammad Bagher Erfanian Mostafa Sagharyan Farshid Memariani Hamid Ejtehadi
author_facet	Mohammad Bagher Erfanian Mostafa Sagharyan Farshid Memariani Hamid Ejtehadi
author_sort	Mohammad Bagher Erfanian
title	Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_short	Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_full	Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_fullStr	Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change
title_sort	predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the khorassan-kopet dagh floristic province under global change
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ec266c60faec4ebfb5cc37087d752c3d
work_keys_str_mv	AT mohammadbaghererfanian predictingrangeshiftsofthreeendangeredendemicplantsofthekhorassankopetdaghfloristicprovinceunderglobalchange AT mostafasagharyan predictingrangeshiftsofthreeendangeredendemicplantsofthekhorassankopetdaghfloristicprovinceunderglobalchange AT farshidmemariani predictingrangeshiftsofthreeendangeredendemicplantsofthekhorassankopetdaghfloristicprovinceunderglobalchange AT hamidejtehadi predictingrangeshiftsofthreeendangeredendemicplantsofthekhorassankopetdaghfloristicprovinceunderglobalchange
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Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change

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