Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios

Climate change has caused many changes in hydrologic processes and climatic conditions globally, while extreme events are likely to occur more frequently at a global scale with continued warming. Given the importance of general circulation models (GCMs) as an essential tool for climate studies at gl...

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Autores principales:	Shahab Doulabian, Saeed Golian, Amirhossein Shadmehri Toosi, Conor Murphy
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	climate change gcms iran precipitation rcps surface air temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/eca1a1b479c347eeb51cc7a69e925b98
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:eca1a1b479c347eeb51cc7a69e925b982021-11-05T18:40:57ZEvaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2020.114https://doaj.org/article/eca1a1b479c347eeb51cc7a69e925b982021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/1/166https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Climate change has caused many changes in hydrologic processes and climatic conditions globally, while extreme events are likely to occur more frequently at a global scale with continued warming. Given the importance of general circulation models (GCMs) as an essential tool for climate studies at global/regional scales, together with the wide range of GCMs available, selecting appropriate models is of great importance. In this study, six synoptic weather stations were selected as representative of different climatic zones over Iran. Utilizing monthly data for 20 years (1981–2000), the outputs of 25 GCMs for surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were evaluated for the historical period. The root-mean-square error and skill score were chosen to evaluate the performance of GCMs in capturing observed seasonal climate. Finally, the outputs of selected GCMs for the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCPs), namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, were downscaled using the change factor method for each station for the period 2046–2065. Results indicate that SAT in all months is likely to increase for each region, while for precipitation, large uncertainties emerge, despite the selection of climate models that best capture the observed seasonal cycle. These results highlight the importance of selecting a representative ensemble of GCMs for assessing future hydro-climatic changes for Iran.Shahab DoulabianSaeed GolianAmirhossein Shadmehri ToosiConor MurphyIWA Publishingarticleclimate changegcmsiranprecipitationrcpssurface air temperatureEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 166-184 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change gcms iran precipitation rcps surface air temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	climate change gcms iran precipitation rcps surface air temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Shahab Doulabian Saeed Golian Amirhossein Shadmehri Toosi Conor Murphy Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios
description	Climate change has caused many changes in hydrologic processes and climatic conditions globally, while extreme events are likely to occur more frequently at a global scale with continued warming. Given the importance of general circulation models (GCMs) as an essential tool for climate studies at global/regional scales, together with the wide range of GCMs available, selecting appropriate models is of great importance. In this study, six synoptic weather stations were selected as representative of different climatic zones over Iran. Utilizing monthly data for 20 years (1981–2000), the outputs of 25 GCMs for surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were evaluated for the historical period. The root-mean-square error and skill score were chosen to evaluate the performance of GCMs in capturing observed seasonal climate. Finally, the outputs of selected GCMs for the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCPs), namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, were downscaled using the change factor method for each station for the period 2046–2065. Results indicate that SAT in all months is likely to increase for each region, while for precipitation, large uncertainties emerge, despite the selection of climate models that best capture the observed seasonal cycle. These results highlight the importance of selecting a representative ensemble of GCMs for assessing future hydro-climatic changes for Iran.
format	article
author	Shahab Doulabian Saeed Golian Amirhossein Shadmehri Toosi Conor Murphy
author_facet	Shahab Doulabian Saeed Golian Amirhossein Shadmehri Toosi Conor Murphy
author_sort	Shahab Doulabian
title	Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios
title_short	Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios
title_full	Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios
title_fullStr	Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios
title_sort	evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for iran using rcp scenarios
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/eca1a1b479c347eeb51cc7a69e925b98
work_keys_str_mv	AT shahabdoulabian evaluatingtheeffectsofclimatechangeonprecipitationandtemperatureforiranusingrcpscenarios AT saeedgolian evaluatingtheeffectsofclimatechangeonprecipitationandtemperatureforiranusingrcpscenarios AT amirhosseinshadmehritoosi evaluatingtheeffectsofclimatechangeonprecipitationandtemperatureforiranusingrcpscenarios AT conormurphy evaluatingtheeffectsofclimatechangeonprecipitationandtemperatureforiranusingrcpscenarios
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Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios

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