Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles

Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patien...

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Autores principales:	Óscar Gorgojo-Galindo, Marta Martín-Fernández, María Jesús Peñarrubia-Ponce, Francisco Javier Álvarez, Christian Ortega-Loubon, Hugo Gonzalo-Benito, Pedro Martínez-Paz, José Pablo Miramontes-González, Esther Gómez-Sánchez, Rodrigo Poves-Álvarez, Pablo Jorge-Monjas, Eduardo Tamayo, María Heredia-Rodríguez, Álvaro Tamayo-Velasco
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	COVID-19 HGF diagnosis cytokines biomarker validation Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ecf9fad47b314df4b289d5e683192e3f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ecf9fad47b314df4b289d5e683192e3f2021-11-25T18:02:46ZPredictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles10.3390/jcm102254312077-0383https://doaj.org/article/ecf9fad47b314df4b289d5e683192e3f2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/22/5431https://doaj.org/toc/2077-0383Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patients was conducted between March and April 2020 at Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid (Spain). Plasma samples from each patient were collected after emergency room admission. Forty-five serum cytokines were measured in duplicate, and clinical data were analyzed using SPPS version 25.0. Results: A multivariate predictive model showed high hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) plasma levels as the only cytokine related to intubation or death risk at hospital admission (OR = 7.38, 95%CI—(1.28–42.4), <i>p</i> = 0.025). There were no comorbidities included in the model except for the ABO blood group, in which the O blood group was associated with a 14-fold lower risk of a poor outcome. Other clinical variables were also included in the predictive model. The predictive model was internally validated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94, a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 95%. The use of a bootstrapping method confirmed these results. Conclusions: A simple, robust, and quick predictive model, based on the ABO blood group, four common laboratory values, and one specific cytokine (HGF), could be used in order to predict poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients.Óscar Gorgojo-GalindoMarta Martín-FernándezMaría Jesús Peñarrubia-PonceFrancisco Javier ÁlvarezChristian Ortega-LoubonHugo Gonzalo-BenitoPedro Martínez-PazJosé Pablo Miramontes-GonzálezEsther Gómez-SánchezRodrigo Poves-ÁlvarezPablo Jorge-MonjasEduardo TamayoMaría Heredia-RodríguezÁlvaro Tamayo-VelascoMDPI AGarticleCOVID-19HGFdiagnosiscytokinesbiomarkervalidationMedicineRENJournal of Clinical Medicine, Vol 10, Iss 5431, p 5431 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	COVID-19 HGF diagnosis cytokines biomarker validation Medicine R
spellingShingle	COVID-19 HGF diagnosis cytokines biomarker validation Medicine R Óscar Gorgojo-Galindo Marta Martín-Fernández María Jesús Peñarrubia-Ponce Francisco Javier Álvarez Christian Ortega-Loubon Hugo Gonzalo-Benito Pedro Martínez-Paz José Pablo Miramontes-González Esther Gómez-Sánchez Rodrigo Poves-Álvarez Pablo Jorge-Monjas Eduardo Tamayo María Heredia-Rodríguez Álvaro Tamayo-Velasco Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
description	Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patients was conducted between March and April 2020 at Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid (Spain). Plasma samples from each patient were collected after emergency room admission. Forty-five serum cytokines were measured in duplicate, and clinical data were analyzed using SPPS version 25.0. Results: A multivariate predictive model showed high hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) plasma levels as the only cytokine related to intubation or death risk at hospital admission (OR = 7.38, 95%CI—(1.28–42.4), <i>p</i> = 0.025). There were no comorbidities included in the model except for the ABO blood group, in which the O blood group was associated with a 14-fold lower risk of a poor outcome. Other clinical variables were also included in the predictive model. The predictive model was internally validated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94, a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 95%. The use of a bootstrapping method confirmed these results. Conclusions: A simple, robust, and quick predictive model, based on the ABO blood group, four common laboratory values, and one specific cytokine (HGF), could be used in order to predict poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients.
format	article
author	Óscar Gorgojo-Galindo Marta Martín-Fernández María Jesús Peñarrubia-Ponce Francisco Javier Álvarez Christian Ortega-Loubon Hugo Gonzalo-Benito Pedro Martínez-Paz José Pablo Miramontes-González Esther Gómez-Sánchez Rodrigo Poves-Álvarez Pablo Jorge-Monjas Eduardo Tamayo María Heredia-Rodríguez Álvaro Tamayo-Velasco
author_facet	Óscar Gorgojo-Galindo Marta Martín-Fernández María Jesús Peñarrubia-Ponce Francisco Javier Álvarez Christian Ortega-Loubon Hugo Gonzalo-Benito Pedro Martínez-Paz José Pablo Miramontes-González Esther Gómez-Sánchez Rodrigo Poves-Álvarez Pablo Jorge-Monjas Eduardo Tamayo María Heredia-Rodríguez Álvaro Tamayo-Velasco
author_sort	Óscar Gorgojo-Galindo
title	Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_short	Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_full	Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_fullStr	Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_full_unstemmed	Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_sort	predictive modeling of poor outcome in severe covid-19: a single-center observational study based on clinical, cytokine and laboratory profiles
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ecf9fad47b314df4b289d5e683192e3f
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Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles

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