Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.

<h4>Background</h4>Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source...

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Autores principales:	Oliver J Brady, Peter W Gething, Samir Bhatt, Jane P Messina, John S Brownstein, Anne G Hoen, Catherine L Moyes, Andrew W Farlow, Thomas W Scott, Simon I Hay
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ede4f238241548ba8746f354341bc68e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ede4f238241548ba8746f354341bc68e2021-11-18T09:13:56ZRefining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0001760https://doaj.org/article/ede4f238241548ba8746f354341bc68e2012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22880140/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735<h4>Background</h4>Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status.<h4>Methods/principal findings</h4>A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence.<h4>Conclusion</h4>The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.Oliver J BradyPeter W GethingSamir BhattJane P MessinaJohn S BrownsteinAnne G HoenCatherine L MoyesAndrew W FarlowThomas W ScottSimon I HayPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 6, Iss 8, p e1760 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Oliver J Brady Peter W Gething Samir Bhatt Jane P Messina John S Brownstein Anne G Hoen Catherine L Moyes Andrew W Farlow Thomas W Scott Simon I Hay Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status.<h4>Methods/principal findings</h4>A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence.<h4>Conclusion</h4>The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.
format	article
author	Oliver J Brady Peter W Gething Samir Bhatt Jane P Messina John S Brownstein Anne G Hoen Catherine L Moyes Andrew W Farlow Thomas W Scott Simon I Hay
author_facet	Oliver J Brady Peter W Gething Samir Bhatt Jane P Messina John S Brownstein Anne G Hoen Catherine L Moyes Andrew W Farlow Thomas W Scott Simon I Hay
author_sort	Oliver J Brady
title	Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.
title_short	Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.
title_full	Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.
title_fullStr	Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.
title_full_unstemmed	Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.
title_sort	refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/ede4f238241548ba8746f354341bc68e
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Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.

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