Declaration of local chemical eradication of the Argentine ant: Bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model

Abstract Determining the success of eradication of an invasive species requires a way to decide when its risk of reoccurrence has become acceptably low. In Japan, the area populated by the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile (Mayr), is expanding, and eradication via chemical treatment is ongoing at va...

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Autores principales:	Yoshiko Sakamoto, Naoki H. Kumagai, Koichi Goka
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/efbc163e8e9142a6a1581829232c24b5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:efbc163e8e9142a6a1581829232c24b52021-12-02T11:53:09ZDeclaration of local chemical eradication of the Argentine ant: Bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model10.1038/s41598-017-03516-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/efbc163e8e9142a6a1581829232c24b52017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03516-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Determining the success of eradication of an invasive species requires a way to decide when its risk of reoccurrence has become acceptably low. In Japan, the area populated by the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile (Mayr), is expanding, and eradication via chemical treatment is ongoing at various locations. One such program in Tokyo was apparently successful, because the ant population decreased to undetectable levels within a short time. However, construction of a population model for management purposes was difficult because the probability of detecting ants decreases rapidly as the population collapses. To predict the time when the ant was eradicated, we developed a multinomial-mixture model for chemical eradication based on monthly trapping data and the history of pesticide applications. We decided when to declare that eradication had been successful by considering both ‘eradication’ times, which we associated with eradication probabilities of 95% and 99%, and an optimal stopping time based on a ‘minimum expected economic cost’ that considered the possibility that surveys were stopped too soon. By applying these criteria, we retroactively declared that Argentine ants had been eradicated 38–42 months after the start of treatments (16–17 months after the last sighting).Yoshiko SakamotoNaoki H. KumagaiKoichi GokaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yoshiko Sakamoto Naoki H. Kumagai Koichi Goka Declaration of local chemical eradication of the Argentine ant: Bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model
description	Abstract Determining the success of eradication of an invasive species requires a way to decide when its risk of reoccurrence has become acceptably low. In Japan, the area populated by the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile (Mayr), is expanding, and eradication via chemical treatment is ongoing at various locations. One such program in Tokyo was apparently successful, because the ant population decreased to undetectable levels within a short time. However, construction of a population model for management purposes was difficult because the probability of detecting ants decreases rapidly as the population collapses. To predict the time when the ant was eradicated, we developed a multinomial-mixture model for chemical eradication based on monthly trapping data and the history of pesticide applications. We decided when to declare that eradication had been successful by considering both ‘eradication’ times, which we associated with eradication probabilities of 95% and 99%, and an optimal stopping time based on a ‘minimum expected economic cost’ that considered the possibility that surveys were stopped too soon. By applying these criteria, we retroactively declared that Argentine ants had been eradicated 38–42 months after the start of treatments (16–17 months after the last sighting).
format	article
author	Yoshiko Sakamoto Naoki H. Kumagai Koichi Goka
author_facet	Yoshiko Sakamoto Naoki H. Kumagai Koichi Goka
author_sort	Yoshiko Sakamoto
title	Declaration of local chemical eradication of the Argentine ant: Bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model
title_short	Declaration of local chemical eradication of the Argentine ant: Bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model
title_full	Declaration of local chemical eradication of the Argentine ant: Bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model
title_fullStr	Declaration of local chemical eradication of the Argentine ant: Bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model
title_full_unstemmed	Declaration of local chemical eradication of the Argentine ant: Bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model
title_sort	declaration of local chemical eradication of the argentine ant: bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/efbc163e8e9142a6a1581829232c24b5
work_keys_str_mv	AT yoshikosakamoto declarationoflocalchemicaleradicationoftheargentineantbayesianestimationwithamultinomialmixturemodel AT naokihkumagai declarationoflocalchemicaleradicationoftheargentineantbayesianestimationwithamultinomialmixturemodel AT koichigoka declarationoflocalchemicaleradicationoftheargentineantbayesianestimationwithamultinomialmixturemodel
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Declaration of local chemical eradication of the Argentine ant: Bayesian estimation with a multinomial-mixture model

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