Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese

Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese

Abstract Background No prognostic model for the survival of fragile hip fracture has been developed for Asians. The goal of this study was to develop a simple and practical prognostic model to predict survival within 1 year after fragile hip fracture in Asians. Methods A single-center retrospective...

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Autores principales: Hairui Fu, Bin Liang, Wei Qin, Xiaoxiong Qiao, Qiang Liu
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: BMC 2021
Materias:
Prognostic model
Development
Fragile hip fracture
Survival
Orthopedic surgery
RD701-811
Diseases of the musculoskeletal system
RC925-935
Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/f02f77c56f274749bb29f3f3ee66a685
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:f02f77c56f274749bb29f3f3ee66a6852021-11-28T12:27:00ZDevelopment of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese10.1186/s13018-021-02774-y1749-799Xhttps://doaj.org/article/f02f77c56f274749bb29f3f3ee66a6852021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13018-021-02774-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/1749-799XAbstract Background No prognostic model for the survival of fragile hip fracture has been developed for Asians. The goal of this study was to develop a simple and practical prognostic model to predict survival within 1 year after fragile hip fracture in Asians. Methods A single-center retrospective cohort study was designed. Under a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model, we used the preoperative characteristics of patients to predict survival within 1 year after hip fracture. We built a full model and then used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to further shrink the model coefficients and achieved variable screening. Finally, we obtained a LASSO model. The model performance was evaluated with Nagelkerke’s R2 and the concordance (c) statistic. We assessed the internal validity with a bootstrapping procedure of 1 000 repetitions. Results A total of 735 eligible patients were admitted to our department for hip fracture from January 2015 to December 2020, but 11 (1.5%) patients were lost to follow-up. Among the remaining patients, 68 (9.3%) died within 1 year after hip fracture. We identified 12 candidate predictors from the preoperative characteristics of the patients. The last model contained nine predictors: surgery, age, albumin, sex, serum creatinine, malignancy, hypertension, ability to live independently, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Among them, surgery, age, and albumin are effective predictors of survival. The discrimination c statistic of the model is 0.814 (95% confidence interval 0.762–0.865); the corrected value through internal validation is 0.795. Conclusions This prognostic model can accurately predict a 1-year survival rate for patients with fragile hip fractures. This information can help clinicians develop a reasonable and personalized treatment plan.Hairui FuBin LiangWei QinXiaoxiong QiaoQiang LiuBMCarticlePrognostic modelDevelopmentFragile hip fractureSurvivalOrthopedic surgeryRD701-811Diseases of the musculoskeletal systemRC925-935ENJournal of Orthopaedic Surgery and Research, Vol 16, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Prognostic model
Development
Fragile hip fracture
Survival
Orthopedic surgery
RD701-811
Diseases of the musculoskeletal system
RC925-935
spellingShingle Prognostic model
Development
Fragile hip fracture
Survival
Orthopedic surgery
RD701-811
Diseases of the musculoskeletal system
RC925-935
Hairui Fu
Bin Liang
Wei Qin
Xiaoxiong Qiao
Qiang Liu
Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese
description Abstract Background No prognostic model for the survival of fragile hip fracture has been developed for Asians. The goal of this study was to develop a simple and practical prognostic model to predict survival within 1 year after fragile hip fracture in Asians. Methods A single-center retrospective cohort study was designed. Under a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model, we used the preoperative characteristics of patients to predict survival within 1 year after hip fracture. We built a full model and then used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to further shrink the model coefficients and achieved variable screening. Finally, we obtained a LASSO model. The model performance was evaluated with Nagelkerke’s R2 and the concordance (c) statistic. We assessed the internal validity with a bootstrapping procedure of 1 000 repetitions. Results A total of 735 eligible patients were admitted to our department for hip fracture from January 2015 to December 2020, but 11 (1.5%) patients were lost to follow-up. Among the remaining patients, 68 (9.3%) died within 1 year after hip fracture. We identified 12 candidate predictors from the preoperative characteristics of the patients. The last model contained nine predictors: surgery, age, albumin, sex, serum creatinine, malignancy, hypertension, ability to live independently, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Among them, surgery, age, and albumin are effective predictors of survival. The discrimination c statistic of the model is 0.814 (95% confidence interval 0.762–0.865); the corrected value through internal validation is 0.795. Conclusions This prognostic model can accurately predict a 1-year survival rate for patients with fragile hip fractures. This information can help clinicians develop a reasonable and personalized treatment plan.
format article
author Hairui Fu
Bin Liang
Wei Qin
Xiaoxiong Qiao
Qiang Liu
author_facet Hairui Fu
Bin Liang
Wei Qin
Xiaoxiong Qiao
Qiang Liu
author_sort Hairui Fu
title Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese
title_short Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese
title_full Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese
title_fullStr Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese
title_full_unstemmed Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese
title_sort development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in chinese
publisher BMC
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/f02f77c56f274749bb29f3f3ee66a685
work_keys_str_mv AT hairuifu developmentofaprognosticmodelfor1yearsurvivalafterfragilehipfractureinchinese
AT binliang developmentofaprognosticmodelfor1yearsurvivalafterfragilehipfractureinchinese
AT weiqin developmentofaprognosticmodelfor1yearsurvivalafterfragilehipfractureinchinese
AT xiaoxiongqiao developmentofaprognosticmodelfor1yearsurvivalafterfragilehipfractureinchinese
AT qiangliu developmentofaprognosticmodelfor1yearsurvivalafterfragilehipfractureinchinese
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