Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.

<h4>Background</h4>Disease surveillance and response are critical components of epidemic preparedness. The disease response, in most cases, is a set of reactive measures that follow the outcomes of the disease surveillance. Hence, timely surveillance is a prerequisite for an effective re...

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Autores principales:	Kamran Najeebullah, Jessica Liebig, Jonathan Darbro, Raja Jurdak, Dean Paini
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f054f99a7d1647a188ac707947a1ba4b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f054f99a7d1647a188ac707947a1ba4b2021-12-02T20:13:39ZTimely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0258332https://doaj.org/article/f054f99a7d1647a188ac707947a1ba4b2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258332https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Disease surveillance and response are critical components of epidemic preparedness. The disease response, in most cases, is a set of reactive measures that follow the outcomes of the disease surveillance. Hence, timely surveillance is a prerequisite for an effective response.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We apply epidemiological soundness criteria in combination with the Latent Influence Point Process and time-to-event models to construct a disease spread network. The network implicitly quantifies the fertility (whether a case leads to secondary cases) and reproduction (number of secondary cases per infectious case) of the cases as well as the size and generations (of the infection chain) of the outbreaks. We test our approach by applying it to historic dengue case data from Australia. Using the data, we empirically confirm that high morbidity relates positively with delay in disease response. Moreover, we identify what constitutes timely surveillance by applying various thresholds of disease response delay to the network and report their impact on case fertility, reproduction, number of generations and ultimately, outbreak size. We observe that enforcing a response delay threshold of 5 days leads to a large average reduction across all parameters (occurrence 87%, reproduction 83%, outbreak size 80% and outbreak generations 47%), whereas extending the threshold to 10 days, in comparison, significantly limits the effectiveness of the response actions. Lastly, we identify the components of the disease surveillance system that can be calibrated to achieve the identified thresholds.<h4>Conclusion</h4>We identify practically achievable, timely surveillance thresholds (on temporal scale) that lead to an effective response and identify how they can be satisfied. Our approach can be utilized to provide guidelines on spatially and demographically targeted resource allocation for public awareness campaigns as well as to improve diagnostic abilities and turn-around times for the doctors and laboratories involved.Kamran NajeebullahJessica LiebigJonathan DarbroRaja JurdakDean PainiPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 10, p e0258332 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Kamran Najeebullah Jessica Liebig Jonathan Darbro Raja Jurdak Dean Paini Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Disease surveillance and response are critical components of epidemic preparedness. The disease response, in most cases, is a set of reactive measures that follow the outcomes of the disease surveillance. Hence, timely surveillance is a prerequisite for an effective response.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We apply epidemiological soundness criteria in combination with the Latent Influence Point Process and time-to-event models to construct a disease spread network. The network implicitly quantifies the fertility (whether a case leads to secondary cases) and reproduction (number of secondary cases per infectious case) of the cases as well as the size and generations (of the infection chain) of the outbreaks. We test our approach by applying it to historic dengue case data from Australia. Using the data, we empirically confirm that high morbidity relates positively with delay in disease response. Moreover, we identify what constitutes timely surveillance by applying various thresholds of disease response delay to the network and report their impact on case fertility, reproduction, number of generations and ultimately, outbreak size. We observe that enforcing a response delay threshold of 5 days leads to a large average reduction across all parameters (occurrence 87%, reproduction 83%, outbreak size 80% and outbreak generations 47%), whereas extending the threshold to 10 days, in comparison, significantly limits the effectiveness of the response actions. Lastly, we identify the components of the disease surveillance system that can be calibrated to achieve the identified thresholds.<h4>Conclusion</h4>We identify practically achievable, timely surveillance thresholds (on temporal scale) that lead to an effective response and identify how they can be satisfied. Our approach can be utilized to provide guidelines on spatially and demographically targeted resource allocation for public awareness campaigns as well as to improve diagnostic abilities and turn-around times for the doctors and laboratories involved.
format	article
author	Kamran Najeebullah Jessica Liebig Jonathan Darbro Raja Jurdak Dean Paini
author_facet	Kamran Najeebullah Jessica Liebig Jonathan Darbro Raja Jurdak Dean Paini
author_sort	Kamran Najeebullah
title	Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.
title_short	Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.
title_full	Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.
title_fullStr	Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.
title_full_unstemmed	Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.
title_sort	timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f054f99a7d1647a188ac707947a1ba4b
work_keys_str_mv	AT kamrannajeebullah timelysurveillanceandtemporalcalibrationofdiseaseresponseagainsthumaninfectiousdiseases AT jessicaliebig timelysurveillanceandtemporalcalibrationofdiseaseresponseagainsthumaninfectiousdiseases AT jonathandarbro timelysurveillanceandtemporalcalibrationofdiseaseresponseagainsthumaninfectiousdiseases AT rajajurdak timelysurveillanceandtemporalcalibrationofdiseaseresponseagainsthumaninfectiousdiseases AT deanpaini timelysurveillanceandtemporalcalibrationofdiseaseresponseagainsthumaninfectiousdiseases
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Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.

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