Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios

Asia currently has the world’s largest arid and semi-arid zones, so a timely assessment of future droughts in the Asian drylands is prudent, particularly in the context of recent frequent sandstorms. This paper assesses the duration, frequency, and intensity of drought events in the Asian drylands b...

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Autores principales:	Hongwei Li, Zhi Li, Yaning Chen, Yongchang Liu, Yanan Hu, Fan Sun, Patient Mindje Kayumba
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	CMIP6 SSPs Asia drylands drought Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f08f7f4774a145e4b1c65259dfb084d0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f08f7f4774a145e4b1c65259dfb084d02021-11-11T18:55:47ZProjected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios10.3390/rs132144092072-4292https://doaj.org/article/f08f7f4774a145e4b1c65259dfb084d02021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/21/4409https://doaj.org/toc/2072-4292Asia currently has the world’s largest arid and semi-arid zones, so a timely assessment of future droughts in the Asian drylands is prudent, particularly in the context of recent frequent sandstorms. This paper assesses the duration, frequency, and intensity of drought events in the Asian drylands based on nine climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that a high percentage of land area is experiencing significant drought intensification of 65.1%, 89.9%, and 99.8% under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, the data indicate that future droughts will become less frequent but longer in duration and more intense, with even more severe future droughts predicted for northwest China and western parts of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Drought durations of 10.8 months and 13.4 months are anticipated for the future periods of 2021–2060 and 2061–2100, respectively, compared to the duration of 6.6 months for the historical period (1960–2000). Meanwhile, drought intensity is expected to reach 0.97 and 1.37, respectively, for future events compared to 1.66 for the historical period. However, drought severity under SSP245 will be weaker than that under SSP126 due to the mitigating effect of precipitation. The results of this study can provide a basis for the development of adaptation measures in Asian dryland nations.Hongwei LiZhi LiYaning ChenYongchang LiuYanan HuFan SunPatient Mindje KayumbaMDPI AGarticleCMIP6SSPsAsiadrylandsdroughtScienceQENRemote Sensing, Vol 13, Iss 4409, p 4409 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	CMIP6 SSPs Asia drylands drought Science Q
spellingShingle	CMIP6 SSPs Asia drylands drought Science Q Hongwei Li Zhi Li Yaning Chen Yongchang Liu Yanan Hu Fan Sun Patient Mindje Kayumba Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios
description	Asia currently has the world’s largest arid and semi-arid zones, so a timely assessment of future droughts in the Asian drylands is prudent, particularly in the context of recent frequent sandstorms. This paper assesses the duration, frequency, and intensity of drought events in the Asian drylands based on nine climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that a high percentage of land area is experiencing significant drought intensification of 65.1%, 89.9%, and 99.8% under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, the data indicate that future droughts will become less frequent but longer in duration and more intense, with even more severe future droughts predicted for northwest China and western parts of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Drought durations of 10.8 months and 13.4 months are anticipated for the future periods of 2021–2060 and 2061–2100, respectively, compared to the duration of 6.6 months for the historical period (1960–2000). Meanwhile, drought intensity is expected to reach 0.97 and 1.37, respectively, for future events compared to 1.66 for the historical period. However, drought severity under SSP245 will be weaker than that under SSP126 due to the mitigating effect of precipitation. The results of this study can provide a basis for the development of adaptation measures in Asian dryland nations.
format	article
author	Hongwei Li Zhi Li Yaning Chen Yongchang Liu Yanan Hu Fan Sun Patient Mindje Kayumba
author_facet	Hongwei Li Zhi Li Yaning Chen Yongchang Liu Yanan Hu Fan Sun Patient Mindje Kayumba
author_sort	Hongwei Li
title	Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios
title_short	Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios
title_full	Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios
title_fullStr	Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios
title_sort	projected meteorological drought over asian drylands under different cmip6 scenarios
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f08f7f4774a145e4b1c65259dfb084d0
work_keys_str_mv	AT hongweili projectedmeteorologicaldroughtoverasiandrylandsunderdifferentcmip6scenarios AT zhili projectedmeteorologicaldroughtoverasiandrylandsunderdifferentcmip6scenarios AT yaningchen projectedmeteorologicaldroughtoverasiandrylandsunderdifferentcmip6scenarios AT yongchangliu projectedmeteorologicaldroughtoverasiandrylandsunderdifferentcmip6scenarios AT yananhu projectedmeteorologicaldroughtoverasiandrylandsunderdifferentcmip6scenarios AT fansun projectedmeteorologicaldroughtoverasiandrylandsunderdifferentcmip6scenarios AT patientmindjekayumba projectedmeteorologicaldroughtoverasiandrylandsunderdifferentcmip6scenarios
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Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios

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