Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.

<h4>Background</h4>Identifying areas that support high malaria risks and where populations lack access to health care is central to reducing the burden in Afghanistan. This study investigated the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum using routine data to help focus mal...

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Autores principales:	Victor A Alegana, Jim A Wright, Sami M Nahzat, Waqar Butt, Amad W Sediqi, Naeem Habib, Robert W Snow, Peter M Atkinson, Abdisalan M Noor
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f092682ffb464ad19759dca5d6dfffee
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f092682ffb464ad19759dca5d6dfffee2021-11-25T06:08:03ZModelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0102304https://doaj.org/article/f092682ffb464ad19759dca5d6dfffee2014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/25033452/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Identifying areas that support high malaria risks and where populations lack access to health care is central to reducing the burden in Afghanistan. This study investigated the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum using routine data to help focus malaria interventions.<h4>Methods</h4>To estimate incidence, the study modelled utilisation of the public health sector using fever treatment data from the 2012 national Malaria Indicator Survey. A probabilistic measure of attendance was applied to population density metrics to define the proportion of the population within catchment of a public health facility. Malaria data were used in a Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional-autoregressive model with ecological or environmental covariates, to examine the spatial and temporal variation of incidence.<h4>Findings</h4>From the analysis of healthcare utilisation, over 80% of the population was within 2 hours' travel of the nearest public health facility, while 64.4% were within 30 minutes' travel. The mean incidence of P. vivax in 2009 was 5.4 (95% Crl 3.2-9.2) cases per 1000 population compared to 1.2 (95% Crl 0.4-2.9) cases per 1000 population for P. falciparum. P. vivax peaked in August while P. falciparum peaked in November. 32% of the estimated 30.5 million people lived in regions where annual incidence was at least 1 case per 1,000 population of P. vivax; 23.7% of the population lived in areas where annual P. falciparum case incidence was at least 1 per 1000.<h4>Conclusion</h4>This study showed how routine data can be combined with household survey data to model malaria incidence. The incidence of both P. vivax and P. falciparum in Afghanistan remain low but the co-distribution of both parasites and the lag in their peak season provides challenges to malaria control in Afghanistan. Future improved case definition to determine levels of imported risks may be useful for the elimination ambitions in Afghanistan.Victor A AleganaJim A WrightSami M NahzatWaqar ButtAmad W SediqiNaeem HabibRobert W SnowPeter M AtkinsonAbdisalan M NoorPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 7, p e102304 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Victor A Alegana Jim A Wright Sami M Nahzat Waqar Butt Amad W Sediqi Naeem Habib Robert W Snow Peter M Atkinson Abdisalan M Noor Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Identifying areas that support high malaria risks and where populations lack access to health care is central to reducing the burden in Afghanistan. This study investigated the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum using routine data to help focus malaria interventions.<h4>Methods</h4>To estimate incidence, the study modelled utilisation of the public health sector using fever treatment data from the 2012 national Malaria Indicator Survey. A probabilistic measure of attendance was applied to population density metrics to define the proportion of the population within catchment of a public health facility. Malaria data were used in a Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional-autoregressive model with ecological or environmental covariates, to examine the spatial and temporal variation of incidence.<h4>Findings</h4>From the analysis of healthcare utilisation, over 80% of the population was within 2 hours' travel of the nearest public health facility, while 64.4% were within 30 minutes' travel. The mean incidence of P. vivax in 2009 was 5.4 (95% Crl 3.2-9.2) cases per 1000 population compared to 1.2 (95% Crl 0.4-2.9) cases per 1000 population for P. falciparum. P. vivax peaked in August while P. falciparum peaked in November. 32% of the estimated 30.5 million people lived in regions where annual incidence was at least 1 case per 1,000 population of P. vivax; 23.7% of the population lived in areas where annual P. falciparum case incidence was at least 1 per 1000.<h4>Conclusion</h4>This study showed how routine data can be combined with household survey data to model malaria incidence. The incidence of both P. vivax and P. falciparum in Afghanistan remain low but the co-distribution of both parasites and the lag in their peak season provides challenges to malaria control in Afghanistan. Future improved case definition to determine levels of imported risks may be useful for the elimination ambitions in Afghanistan.
format	article
author	Victor A Alegana Jim A Wright Sami M Nahzat Waqar Butt Amad W Sediqi Naeem Habib Robert W Snow Peter M Atkinson Abdisalan M Noor
author_facet	Victor A Alegana Jim A Wright Sami M Nahzat Waqar Butt Amad W Sediqi Naeem Habib Robert W Snow Peter M Atkinson Abdisalan M Noor
author_sort	Victor A Alegana
title	Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.
title_short	Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.
title_full	Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.
title_fullStr	Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.
title_sort	modelling the incidence of plasmodium vivax and plasmodium falciparum malaria in afghanistan 2006-2009.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/f092682ffb464ad19759dca5d6dfffee
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Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.

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