Crop response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops

Abstract Although weather is a major driver of crop yield, many farmers don’t know in advance how the weather will vary nor how their crops will respond. We hypothesized that where El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives weather patterns, and data on crop response to distinct management practices...

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Autores principales:	Ross Chapman, James Cock, Marianne Samson, Noel Janetski, Kate Janetski, Dadang Gusyana, Sudarshan Dutta, Thomas Oberthür
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f16712fb8c504070889aade43f2b7924
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f16712fb8c504070889aade43f2b79242021-12-02T15:51:16ZCrop response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops10.1038/s41598-021-87520-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/f16712fb8c504070889aade43f2b79242021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87520-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Although weather is a major driver of crop yield, many farmers don’t know in advance how the weather will vary nor how their crops will respond. We hypothesized that where El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives weather patterns, and data on crop response to distinct management practices exists, it should be possible to map ENSO Oceanic Index (ENSO OI) patterns to crop management responses without precise weather data. Time series data on cacao farm yields in Sulawesi, Indonesia, with and without fertilizer, were used to provide proof-of-concept. A machine learning approach associated 75% of cacao yield variation with the ENSO patterns up to 8 and 24 months before harvest and predicted when fertilizer applications would be worthwhile. Thus, it’s possible to relate average cacao crop performance and management response directly to ENSO patterns without weather data provided: (1) site specific data exist on crop performance over time with distinct management practices; and (2) the weather patterns are driven by ENSO OI. We believe that the principles established here can readily be applied to other crops, particularly when there’s little data available on crop responses to management and weather. However, specific models will be required for each crop and every recommendation domain.Ross ChapmanJames CockMarianne SamsonNoel JanetskiKate JanetskiDadang GusyanaSudarshan DuttaThomas OberthürNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ross Chapman James Cock Marianne Samson Noel Janetski Kate Janetski Dadang Gusyana Sudarshan Dutta Thomas Oberthür Crop response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops
description	Abstract Although weather is a major driver of crop yield, many farmers don’t know in advance how the weather will vary nor how their crops will respond. We hypothesized that where El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives weather patterns, and data on crop response to distinct management practices exists, it should be possible to map ENSO Oceanic Index (ENSO OI) patterns to crop management responses without precise weather data. Time series data on cacao farm yields in Sulawesi, Indonesia, with and without fertilizer, were used to provide proof-of-concept. A machine learning approach associated 75% of cacao yield variation with the ENSO patterns up to 8 and 24 months before harvest and predicted when fertilizer applications would be worthwhile. Thus, it’s possible to relate average cacao crop performance and management response directly to ENSO patterns without weather data provided: (1) site specific data exist on crop performance over time with distinct management practices; and (2) the weather patterns are driven by ENSO OI. We believe that the principles established here can readily be applied to other crops, particularly when there’s little data available on crop responses to management and weather. However, specific models will be required for each crop and every recommendation domain.
format	article
author	Ross Chapman James Cock Marianne Samson Noel Janetski Kate Janetski Dadang Gusyana Sudarshan Dutta Thomas Oberthür
author_facet	Ross Chapman James Cock Marianne Samson Noel Janetski Kate Janetski Dadang Gusyana Sudarshan Dutta Thomas Oberthür
author_sort	Ross Chapman
title	Crop response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops
title_short	Crop response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops
title_full	Crop response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops
title_fullStr	Crop response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops
title_full_unstemmed	Crop response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops
title_sort	crop response to el niño-southern oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f16712fb8c504070889aade43f2b7924
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Crop response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation related weather variation to help farmers manage their crops

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