The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution...

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Autores principales:	Simon M Firestone, Naomi Cogger, Michael P Ward, Jenny-Ann L M L Toribio, Barbara J Moloney, Navneet K Dhand
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f1841710c65342c0b5ca463ba81991ab
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f1841710c65342c0b5ca463ba81991ab2021-11-18T07:21:26ZThe influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0035284https://doaj.org/article/f1841710c65342c0b5ca463ba81991ab2012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22536366/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20-25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour(-1) from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.Simon M FirestoneNaomi CoggerMichael P WardJenny-Ann L M L ToribioBarbara J MoloneyNavneet K DhandPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 4, p e35284 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Simon M Firestone Naomi Cogger Michael P Ward Jenny-Ann L M L Toribio Barbara J Moloney Navneet K Dhand The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.
description	The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20-25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour(-1) from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.
format	article
author	Simon M Firestone Naomi Cogger Michael P Ward Jenny-Ann L M L Toribio Barbara J Moloney Navneet K Dhand
author_facet	Simon M Firestone Naomi Cogger Michael P Ward Jenny-Ann L M L Toribio Barbara J Moloney Navneet K Dhand
author_sort	Simon M Firestone
title	The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.
title_short	The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.
title_full	The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.
title_fullStr	The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.
title_full_unstemmed	The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.
title_sort	influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (a/h3n8) outbreak.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/f1841710c65342c0b5ca463ba81991ab
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The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.

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