Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases

Abstract Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990’s there have...

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Autores principales:	Darren J. Kriticos, Ross E. Darnell, Tania Yonow, Noboru Ota, Robert W. Sutherst, Hazel R. Parry, Habibu Mugerwa, M. N. Maruthi, Susan E. Seal, John Colvin, Sarina Macfadyen, Andrew Kalyebi, Andrew Hulthen, Paul J. De Barro
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Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2020
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f191ca87fd194170a513a9225fad015d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f191ca87fd194170a513a9225fad015d2021-12-02T13:58:14ZImproving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases10.1038/s41598-020-79149-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/f191ca87fd194170a513a9225fad015d2020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79149-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990’s there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.Darren J. KriticosRoss E. DarnellTania YonowNoboru OtaRobert W. SutherstHazel R. ParryHabibu MugerwaM. N. MaruthiSusan E. SealJohn ColvinSarina MacfadyenAndrew KalyebiAndrew HulthenPaul J. De BarroNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-17 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Darren J. Kriticos Ross E. Darnell Tania Yonow Noboru Ota Robert W. Sutherst Hazel R. Parry Habibu Mugerwa M. N. Maruthi Susan E. Seal John Colvin Sarina Macfadyen Andrew Kalyebi Andrew Hulthen Paul J. De Barro Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases
description	Abstract Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990’s there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.
format	article
author	Darren J. Kriticos Ross E. Darnell Tania Yonow Noboru Ota Robert W. Sutherst Hazel R. Parry Habibu Mugerwa M. N. Maruthi Susan E. Seal John Colvin Sarina Macfadyen Andrew Kalyebi Andrew Hulthen Paul J. De Barro
author_facet	Darren J. Kriticos Ross E. Darnell Tania Yonow Noboru Ota Robert W. Sutherst Hazel R. Parry Habibu Mugerwa M. N. Maruthi Susan E. Seal John Colvin Sarina Macfadyen Andrew Kalyebi Andrew Hulthen Paul J. De Barro
author_sort	Darren J. Kriticos
title	Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases
title_short	Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases
title_full	Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases
title_fullStr	Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases
title_full_unstemmed	Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases
title_sort	improving climate suitability for bemisia tabaci in east africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/f191ca87fd194170a513a9225fad015d
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Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases

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