Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia

Background: While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, less is known about the health effects in Somalia, where health systems are weak and vital registration is underdeveloped. Methods: We used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify buri...

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Autores principales:	Abdihamid Warsame, Farah Bashiir, Terri Freemantle, Chris Williams, Yolanda Vazquez, Chris Reeve, Ahmed Aweis, Mohamed Ahmed, Francesco Checchi, Abdirisak Dalmar
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	mortality COVID-19 humanitarian epidemic evaluation Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f19d12a76a724a6a8998cbe40aa2cd4f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f19d12a76a724a6a8998cbe40aa2cd4f2021-11-10T04:21:16ZExcess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia1201-971210.1016/j.ijid.2021.09.049https://doaj.org/article/f19d12a76a724a6a8998cbe40aa2cd4f2021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122100758Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1201-9712Background: While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, less is known about the health effects in Somalia, where health systems are weak and vital registration is underdeveloped. Methods: We used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify burial numbers from January 2017 to September 2020 in Mogadishu. We imputed missing grave counts using surface area data. Simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model were used to predict actual and counterfactual burial rates by cemetery and across Mogadishu during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality and to compute excess burials. We undertook a qualitative survey of key informants to determine the drivers of COVID-19 excess mortality. Results: Burial rates increased during the pandemic, averaging 1.5-fold and peaking at a 2.2-fold increase on pre-pandemic levels. When scaled to plausible range of baseline crude death rates, the excess death toll between January and September 2020 was 3200–11 800. Compared with Barakaat Cemetery Committee's burial records, our estimates were lower. Conclusions: Our study indicates considerable underestimation of the health effects of COVID-19 in Banadir and an overburdened public health system struggling to deal with the increasing severity of the epidemic in 2020.Abdihamid WarsameFarah BashiirTerri FreemantleChris WilliamsYolanda VazquezChris ReeveAhmed AweisMohamed AhmedFrancesco ChecchiAbdirisak DalmarElsevierarticlemortalityCOVID-19humanitarianepidemicevaluationInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol 113, Iss , Pp 190-199 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	mortality COVID-19 humanitarian epidemic evaluation Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	mortality COVID-19 humanitarian epidemic evaluation Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Abdihamid Warsame Farah Bashiir Terri Freemantle Chris Williams Yolanda Vazquez Chris Reeve Ahmed Aweis Mohamed Ahmed Francesco Checchi Abdirisak Dalmar Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia
description	Background: While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, less is known about the health effects in Somalia, where health systems are weak and vital registration is underdeveloped. Methods: We used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify burial numbers from January 2017 to September 2020 in Mogadishu. We imputed missing grave counts using surface area data. Simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model were used to predict actual and counterfactual burial rates by cemetery and across Mogadishu during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality and to compute excess burials. We undertook a qualitative survey of key informants to determine the drivers of COVID-19 excess mortality. Results: Burial rates increased during the pandemic, averaging 1.5-fold and peaking at a 2.2-fold increase on pre-pandemic levels. When scaled to plausible range of baseline crude death rates, the excess death toll between January and September 2020 was 3200–11 800. Compared with Barakaat Cemetery Committee's burial records, our estimates were lower. Conclusions: Our study indicates considerable underestimation of the health effects of COVID-19 in Banadir and an overburdened public health system struggling to deal with the increasing severity of the epidemic in 2020.
format	article
author	Abdihamid Warsame Farah Bashiir Terri Freemantle Chris Williams Yolanda Vazquez Chris Reeve Ahmed Aweis Mohamed Ahmed Francesco Checchi Abdirisak Dalmar
author_facet	Abdihamid Warsame Farah Bashiir Terri Freemantle Chris Williams Yolanda Vazquez Chris Reeve Ahmed Aweis Mohamed Ahmed Francesco Checchi Abdirisak Dalmar
author_sort	Abdihamid Warsame
title	Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia
title_short	Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia
title_full	Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia
title_fullStr	Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia
title_full_unstemmed	Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia
title_sort	excess mortality during the covid-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in mogadishu, somalia
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f19d12a76a724a6a8998cbe40aa2cd4f
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Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia

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