A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines

Due to the withdrawal of coal from power generation in the EU, mining companies in Poland are forced to adapt their production to the decreasing demand. Forecasting the volume of demand plays an important role in planning the volume of the mine’s output. The demand for coal is constantly changing, w...

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Autor principal:	Dariusz Fuksa
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	algorithm simplex Monte Carlo simulation Technology T
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f19e170a56e749fab138c69bcfefb0b6
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:f19e170a56e749fab138c69bcfefb0b6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f19e170a56e749fab138c69bcfefb0b62021-11-11T15:54:23ZA Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines10.3390/en142171111996-1073https://doaj.org/article/f19e170a56e749fab138c69bcfefb0b62021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7111https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073Due to the withdrawal of coal from power generation in the EU, mining companies in Poland are forced to adapt their production to the decreasing demand. Forecasting the volume of demand plays an important role in planning the volume of the mine’s output. The demand for coal is constantly changing, with a downward trend. This article presents a method that allows to assess the impact of the variable demand on mine profits and on the volumes of sales of individual coal grades. The proposed method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and on a solution consisting of the optimization of the production and sales of coal by the mining company (the SIMPLEX algorithm). By using the Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the demand, unlike other commonly used methods, a sufficiently large set of real situations that may occur in the future can be obtained. The results allow us to conclude the extent of desirable adjustment of the structure of the mine’s production to the requirements of its consumers, as well as to predict in which direction these changes will proceed and with what probability. The usefulness of the developed method has been verified on the example of an existing hard coal mine.Dariusz FuksaMDPI AGarticlealgorithm simplexMonte Carlo simulationTechnologyTENEnergies, Vol 14, Iss 7111, p 7111 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	algorithm simplex Monte Carlo simulation Technology T
spellingShingle	algorithm simplex Monte Carlo simulation Technology T Dariusz Fuksa A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines
description	Due to the withdrawal of coal from power generation in the EU, mining companies in Poland are forced to adapt their production to the decreasing demand. Forecasting the volume of demand plays an important role in planning the volume of the mine’s output. The demand for coal is constantly changing, with a downward trend. This article presents a method that allows to assess the impact of the variable demand on mine profits and on the volumes of sales of individual coal grades. The proposed method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and on a solution consisting of the optimization of the production and sales of coal by the mining company (the SIMPLEX algorithm). By using the Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the demand, unlike other commonly used methods, a sufficiently large set of real situations that may occur in the future can be obtained. The results allow us to conclude the extent of desirable adjustment of the structure of the mine’s production to the requirements of its consumers, as well as to predict in which direction these changes will proceed and with what probability. The usefulness of the developed method has been verified on the example of an existing hard coal mine.
format	article
author	Dariusz Fuksa
author_facet	Dariusz Fuksa
author_sort	Dariusz Fuksa
title	A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines
title_short	A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines
title_full	A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines
title_fullStr	A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines
title_full_unstemmed	A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines
title_sort	method for assessing the impact of changes in demand for coal on the structure of coal grades produced by mines
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f19e170a56e749fab138c69bcfefb0b6
work_keys_str_mv	AT dariuszfuksa amethodforassessingtheimpactofchangesindemandforcoalonthestructureofcoalgradesproducedbymines AT dariuszfuksa methodforassessingtheimpactofchangesindemandforcoalonthestructureofcoalgradesproducedbymines
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A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines

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