Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand

This study evaluates drought characteristics in the Mun River Basin, located in the northeast of Thailand. The basin is important from an agriculture perspective, as about 75% of the total area is under cultivation (a majority of which is without irrigation facilities). It is, however, also one of t...

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Autores principales:	Dibesh Khadka, Mukand S. Babel, Sangam Shrestha, Salvatore G.P. Virdis, Matthew Collins
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Drought SPEI Multivariate analysis Empirical copula Severity duration frequency (SDF) Thailand Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f1e3c4cd6ede4791ab9bf5ec11f53778
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f1e3c4cd6ede4791ab9bf5ec11f537782021-11-22T04:24:45ZMultivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand2212-094710.1016/j.wace.2021.100399https://doaj.org/article/f1e3c4cd6ede4791ab9bf5ec11f537782021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094721000864https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947This study evaluates drought characteristics in the Mun River Basin, located in the northeast of Thailand. The basin is important from an agriculture perspective, as about 75% of the total area is under cultivation (a majority of which is without irrigation facilities). It is, however, also one of the most drought-prone regions in the country, and a proper understanding of drought characteristics can aid in planning and implementing drought mitigation and management strategies and measures in the basin. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated from high-resolution climatic data during 1979–2017, we find that major drought events recur approximately every 6 years in the basin. A new approach to the use of thresholds to remove the effects of minor droughts is introduced. It is found to have improved drought characterization for prolonged drought events with low intensity. Drought events are evaluated for severity, duration, and frequency (SDF) using univariate and multivariate approaches at nine timescales (1-week to 24-months). Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log-logistic (LL) are the most suitable distributions for SPEI calculation in the study area, though all three-parameter distributions have good fit at longer timescales. SPEI calculated at weekly timescales, especially during the vegetative stage of crop growth, show a good correlation with yields; thus, they can be useful for planning agricultural activities. Drought vulnerable assessment using joint occurrence probabilities of drought duration and severity indicates that most of the area in the western part and some area in the eastern part are the highest drought-prone regions in the basin. It is interesting to note that the drought prone areas of the basin are independent of the annual rainfall amount but are influenced by its temporal variability.Dibesh KhadkaMukand S. BabelSangam ShresthaSalvatore G.P. VirdisMatthew CollinsElsevierarticleDroughtSPEIMultivariate analysisEmpirical copulaSeverity duration frequency (SDF)ThailandMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENWeather and Climate Extremes, Vol 34, Iss , Pp 100399- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Drought SPEI Multivariate analysis Empirical copula Severity duration frequency (SDF) Thailand Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Drought SPEI Multivariate analysis Empirical copula Severity duration frequency (SDF) Thailand Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Dibesh Khadka Mukand S. Babel Sangam Shrestha Salvatore G.P. Virdis Matthew Collins Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand
description	This study evaluates drought characteristics in the Mun River Basin, located in the northeast of Thailand. The basin is important from an agriculture perspective, as about 75% of the total area is under cultivation (a majority of which is without irrigation facilities). It is, however, also one of the most drought-prone regions in the country, and a proper understanding of drought characteristics can aid in planning and implementing drought mitigation and management strategies and measures in the basin. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated from high-resolution climatic data during 1979–2017, we find that major drought events recur approximately every 6 years in the basin. A new approach to the use of thresholds to remove the effects of minor droughts is introduced. It is found to have improved drought characterization for prolonged drought events with low intensity. Drought events are evaluated for severity, duration, and frequency (SDF) using univariate and multivariate approaches at nine timescales (1-week to 24-months). Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log-logistic (LL) are the most suitable distributions for SPEI calculation in the study area, though all three-parameter distributions have good fit at longer timescales. SPEI calculated at weekly timescales, especially during the vegetative stage of crop growth, show a good correlation with yields; thus, they can be useful for planning agricultural activities. Drought vulnerable assessment using joint occurrence probabilities of drought duration and severity indicates that most of the area in the western part and some area in the eastern part are the highest drought-prone regions in the basin. It is interesting to note that the drought prone areas of the basin are independent of the annual rainfall amount but are influenced by its temporal variability.
format	article
author	Dibesh Khadka Mukand S. Babel Sangam Shrestha Salvatore G.P. Virdis Matthew Collins
author_facet	Dibesh Khadka Mukand S. Babel Sangam Shrestha Salvatore G.P. Virdis Matthew Collins
author_sort	Dibesh Khadka
title	Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand
title_short	Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand
title_full	Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand
title_fullStr	Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand
title_full_unstemmed	Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand
title_sort	multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of thailand
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f1e3c4cd6ede4791ab9bf5ec11f53778
work_keys_str_mv	AT dibeshkhadka multivariateandmultitemporalanalysisofmeteorologicaldroughtinthenortheastofthailand AT mukandsbabel multivariateandmultitemporalanalysisofmeteorologicaldroughtinthenortheastofthailand AT sangamshrestha multivariateandmultitemporalanalysisofmeteorologicaldroughtinthenortheastofthailand AT salvatoregpvirdis multivariateandmultitemporalanalysisofmeteorologicaldroughtinthenortheastofthailand AT matthewcollins multivariateandmultitemporalanalysisofmeteorologicaldroughtinthenortheastofthailand
_version_	1718418256373481472

Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand

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