Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model

Abstract The extent of the challenges and opportunities that population ageing presents depends heavily on the population’s health. Hence, for the development of appropriate strategies that enable countries to adopt the emerging demographic and epidemiological realities, information on future health...

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Autores principales:	Guillaume Marois, Arda Aktas
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f29d2989175b4646b1cb481c4c83e6b5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f29d2989175b4646b1cb481c4c83e6b52021-12-02T13:51:06ZProjecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model10.1038/s41598-021-81092-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/f29d2989175b4646b1cb481c4c83e6b52021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81092-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The extent of the challenges and opportunities that population ageing presents depends heavily on the population’s health. Hence, for the development of appropriate strategies that enable countries to adopt the emerging demographic and epidemiological realities, information on future health trajectories of elderly population is a natural requirement. This study presents an innovative methodological framework for projecting the health of individuals using a dynamic microsimulation model that considers interactions between sociodemographic characteristics, health, mortality, bio-medical and behavioral risk factors. The model developed, called ATHLOS-Mic, is used to project the health of cohorts born before 1960 for the period 2015–2060 for selected European Countries using SHARE data to illustrate the possible effects of some selected risk factors and education on future health trajectories. Results show that, driven by a better educational attainment, each generation will be healthier than the previous one at same age. Also, we see that, on average, an individual of our base population will live about 18 more years since the start of the projection period, but only 5 years in good health. Finally, we find that a scenario that removes the effect of having a low level of education on individual health has the largest impact on the projected average health, the average number of years lived per person, and the average number of years lived in good health.Guillaume MaroisArda AktasNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Guillaume Marois Arda Aktas Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model
description	Abstract The extent of the challenges and opportunities that population ageing presents depends heavily on the population’s health. Hence, for the development of appropriate strategies that enable countries to adopt the emerging demographic and epidemiological realities, information on future health trajectories of elderly population is a natural requirement. This study presents an innovative methodological framework for projecting the health of individuals using a dynamic microsimulation model that considers interactions between sociodemographic characteristics, health, mortality, bio-medical and behavioral risk factors. The model developed, called ATHLOS-Mic, is used to project the health of cohorts born before 1960 for the period 2015–2060 for selected European Countries using SHARE data to illustrate the possible effects of some selected risk factors and education on future health trajectories. Results show that, driven by a better educational attainment, each generation will be healthier than the previous one at same age. Also, we see that, on average, an individual of our base population will live about 18 more years since the start of the projection period, but only 5 years in good health. Finally, we find that a scenario that removes the effect of having a low level of education on individual health has the largest impact on the projected average health, the average number of years lived per person, and the average number of years lived in good health.
format	article
author	Guillaume Marois Arda Aktas
author_facet	Guillaume Marois Arda Aktas
author_sort	Guillaume Marois
title	Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model
title_short	Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model
title_full	Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model
title_fullStr	Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model
title_full_unstemmed	Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model
title_sort	projecting health-ageing trajectories in europe using a dynamic microsimulation model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f29d2989175b4646b1cb481c4c83e6b5
work_keys_str_mv	AT guillaumemarois projectinghealthageingtrajectoriesineuropeusingadynamicmicrosimulationmodel AT ardaaktas projectinghealthageingtrajectoriesineuropeusingadynamicmicrosimulationmodel
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Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model

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