Space–Time Trade-Off of Precursory Seismicity in New Zealand and California Revealed by a Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting Model

The ‘Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale’ (EEPAS) medium-term earthquake forecasting model is based on the precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon and associated scaling relations, in which the precursor magnitude <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/Ma...

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Autores principales:	Sepideh J. Rastin, David A. Rhoades, Annemarie Christophersen
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	earthquake forecasting precursors statistical seismology earthquake likelihood models seismicity patterns New Zealand Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f29fdf91c6544b8db77eafad5e809958
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f29fdf91c6544b8db77eafad5e8099582021-11-11T15:15:58ZSpace–Time Trade-Off of Precursory Seismicity in New Zealand and California Revealed by a Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting Model10.3390/app1121102152076-3417https://doaj.org/article/f29fdf91c6544b8db77eafad5e8099582021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/21/10215https://doaj.org/toc/2076-3417The ‘Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale’ (EEPAS) medium-term earthquake forecasting model is based on the precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon and associated scaling relations, in which the precursor magnitude <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>M</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> is predictive of the mainshock magnitude <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>M</mi><mi>m</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, precursor time <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>T</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and precursory area <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>A</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. In early studies of Ψ, a relatively low correlation between <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>T</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>A</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> suggested the possibility of a trade-off between time and area as a second-order effect. Here, we investigate the trade-off by means of the EEPAS model. Existing versions of EEPAS in New Zealand and California forecast target earthquakes of magnitudes <i>M</i> > 4.95 from input catalogues with <i>M</i> > 2.95. We systematically vary one parameter each from the EEPAS distributions for time and location, thereby varying the temporal and spatial scales of these distributions by two orders of magnitude. As one of these parameters is varied, the other is refitted to a 20-year period of each catalogue. The resulting curves of the temporal scaling factor against the spatial scaling factor are consistent with an even trade-off between time and area, given the limited temporal and spatial extent of the input catalogue. Hybrid models are formed by mixing several EEPAS models, with parameter sets chosen from points on the trade-off line. These are tested against the original fitted EEPAS models on a subsequent period of the New Zealand catalogue. The resulting information gains suggest that the space–time trade-off can be exploited to improve forecasting.Sepideh J. RastinDavid A. RhoadesAnnemarie ChristophersenMDPI AGarticleearthquake forecastingprecursorsstatistical seismologyearthquake likelihood modelsseismicity patternsNew ZealandTechnologyTEngineering (General). Civil engineering (General)TA1-2040Biology (General)QH301-705.5PhysicsQC1-999ChemistryQD1-999ENApplied Sciences, Vol 11, Iss 10215, p 10215 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	earthquake forecasting precursors statistical seismology earthquake likelihood models seismicity patterns New Zealand Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999
spellingShingle	earthquake forecasting precursors statistical seismology earthquake likelihood models seismicity patterns New Zealand Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 Sepideh J. Rastin David A. Rhoades Annemarie Christophersen Space–Time Trade-Off of Precursory Seismicity in New Zealand and California Revealed by a Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting Model
description	The ‘Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale’ (EEPAS) medium-term earthquake forecasting model is based on the precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon and associated scaling relations, in which the precursor magnitude <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>M</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> is predictive of the mainshock magnitude <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>M</mi><mi>m</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, precursor time <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>T</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and precursory area <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>A</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. In early studies of Ψ, a relatively low correlation between <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>T</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>A</mi><mi>P</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> suggested the possibility of a trade-off between time and area as a second-order effect. Here, we investigate the trade-off by means of the EEPAS model. Existing versions of EEPAS in New Zealand and California forecast target earthquakes of magnitudes <i>M</i> > 4.95 from input catalogues with <i>M</i> > 2.95. We systematically vary one parameter each from the EEPAS distributions for time and location, thereby varying the temporal and spatial scales of these distributions by two orders of magnitude. As one of these parameters is varied, the other is refitted to a 20-year period of each catalogue. The resulting curves of the temporal scaling factor against the spatial scaling factor are consistent with an even trade-off between time and area, given the limited temporal and spatial extent of the input catalogue. Hybrid models are formed by mixing several EEPAS models, with parameter sets chosen from points on the trade-off line. These are tested against the original fitted EEPAS models on a subsequent period of the New Zealand catalogue. The resulting information gains suggest that the space–time trade-off can be exploited to improve forecasting.
format	article
author	Sepideh J. Rastin David A. Rhoades Annemarie Christophersen
author_facet	Sepideh J. Rastin David A. Rhoades Annemarie Christophersen
author_sort	Sepideh J. Rastin
title	Space–Time Trade-Off of Precursory Seismicity in New Zealand and California Revealed by a Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting Model
title_short	Space–Time Trade-Off of Precursory Seismicity in New Zealand and California Revealed by a Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting Model
title_full	Space–Time Trade-Off of Precursory Seismicity in New Zealand and California Revealed by a Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting Model
title_fullStr	Space–Time Trade-Off of Precursory Seismicity in New Zealand and California Revealed by a Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting Model
title_full_unstemmed	Space–Time Trade-Off of Precursory Seismicity in New Zealand and California Revealed by a Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting Model
title_sort	space–time trade-off of precursory seismicity in new zealand and california revealed by a medium-term earthquake forecasting model
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f29fdf91c6544b8db77eafad5e809958
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Space–Time Trade-Off of Precursory Seismicity in New Zealand and California Revealed by a Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting Model

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