Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India

Abstract Using a dynamical model (VECTRI) for malaria transmission that accounts for the influence of population and climatic conditions, malaria transmission dynamics is investigated for a highly endemic region (state of Odisha) in India. The model is first calibrated over the region, and subsequen...

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Autores principales:	Ruchi Singh Parihar, Prasanta Kumar Bal, Vaibhav Kumar, Saroj Kanta Mishra, Sandeep Sahany, Popat Salunke, Sushil Kumar Dash, Ramesh Chand Dhiman
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2019
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f30baf77f7bd45428018e813622df2ac
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f30baf77f7bd45428018e813622df2ac2021-12-02T16:08:53ZNumerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India10.1038/s41598-019-47212-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/f30baf77f7bd45428018e813622df2ac2019-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47212-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Using a dynamical model (VECTRI) for malaria transmission that accounts for the influence of population and climatic conditions, malaria transmission dynamics is investigated for a highly endemic region (state of Odisha) in India. The model is first calibrated over the region, and subsequently numerical simulations are carried out for the period 2000–2013. Using both model and observations we find that temperature, adult mosquito population, and infective biting rates have increased over this period, and the malaria vector abundance is higher during the summer monsoon season. Regionally, the intensity of malaria transmission is found to be higher in the north, central and southern districts of Odisha where the mosquito populations and the number of infective bites are more and mainly in the forest or mountainous ecotypes. We also find that the peak of the malaria transmission occurs when the monthly mean temperature is in the range of ~28–29 °C, and monthly rainfall accumulation in the range of ~200–360 mm.Ruchi Singh PariharPrasanta Kumar BalVaibhav KumarSaroj Kanta MishraSandeep SahanyPopat SalunkeSushil Kumar DashRamesh Chand DhimanNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ruchi Singh Parihar Prasanta Kumar Bal Vaibhav Kumar Saroj Kanta Mishra Sandeep Sahany Popat Salunke Sushil Kumar Dash Ramesh Chand Dhiman Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India
description	Abstract Using a dynamical model (VECTRI) for malaria transmission that accounts for the influence of population and climatic conditions, malaria transmission dynamics is investigated for a highly endemic region (state of Odisha) in India. The model is first calibrated over the region, and subsequently numerical simulations are carried out for the period 2000–2013. Using both model and observations we find that temperature, adult mosquito population, and infective biting rates have increased over this period, and the malaria vector abundance is higher during the summer monsoon season. Regionally, the intensity of malaria transmission is found to be higher in the north, central and southern districts of Odisha where the mosquito populations and the number of infective bites are more and mainly in the forest or mountainous ecotypes. We also find that the peak of the malaria transmission occurs when the monthly mean temperature is in the range of ~28–29 °C, and monthly rainfall accumulation in the range of ~200–360 mm.
format	article
author	Ruchi Singh Parihar Prasanta Kumar Bal Vaibhav Kumar Saroj Kanta Mishra Sandeep Sahany Popat Salunke Sushil Kumar Dash Ramesh Chand Dhiman
author_facet	Ruchi Singh Parihar Prasanta Kumar Bal Vaibhav Kumar Saroj Kanta Mishra Sandeep Sahany Popat Salunke Sushil Kumar Dash Ramesh Chand Dhiman
author_sort	Ruchi Singh Parihar
title	Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India
title_short	Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India
title_full	Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India
title_fullStr	Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India
title_full_unstemmed	Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India
title_sort	numerical modeling of the dynamics of malaria transmission in a highly endemic region of india
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/f30baf77f7bd45428018e813622df2ac
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Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India

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