Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China

Spring extreme precipitation poses great challenges to agricultural production and economic development in southern China. From the perspective of prediction, the relationship between spring extreme precipitation frequency (SEPF) in southern China and preceding autumn snow cover over Eurasia is inve...

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Autores principales:	Mengqi Zhang, Jianqi Sun
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	snow cover spring extreme precipitation southern China prediction sea ice Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f36db6b5d6b94b89937290c715492135
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f36db6b5d6b94b89937290c7154921352021-11-12T06:04:56ZImpact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China2296-646310.3389/feart.2021.785601https://doaj.org/article/f36db6b5d6b94b89937290c7154921352021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.785601/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463Spring extreme precipitation poses great challenges to agricultural production and economic development in southern China. From the perspective of prediction, the relationship between spring extreme precipitation frequency (SEPF) in southern China and preceding autumn snow cover over Eurasia is investigated. The results indicate that the southern China SEPF is significantly correlated with October snow cover in central Siberia. Corresponding to reduced October snow cover, the vertical propagation of planetary waves is suppressed, which leads to a strengthened stratospheric polar vortex from October to following December. The signal of the anomalous stratospheric polar vortex propagates downward to the surface, contributing to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern in December. The southwesterlies in the northern Eurasia-eastern Arctic associated with the positive NAO induce sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara seas in January–February, which then tends to enhance the vertical propagation of planetary waves by constructively interfering with the climatological wavenumber-1 component. Therefore, the stratosphere polar vortex is significantly weakened in spring, which further contributes to a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern in the troposphere. The negative spring AO is related to an anomalous cyclone in East Asia, which induces upward motion and moisture convergence in southern China, consequently providing favorable dynamic and moisture conditions for extreme precipitation in the region. The snow cover signal in central Siberia in the preceding October provides a potential source for the prediction of spring extreme precipitation variability in southern China with two seasons in advance.Mengqi ZhangJianqi SunJianqi SunJianqi SunFrontiers Media S.A.articlesnow coverspring extreme precipitationsouthern Chinapredictionsea iceScienceQENFrontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	snow cover spring extreme precipitation southern China prediction sea ice Science Q
spellingShingle	snow cover spring extreme precipitation southern China prediction sea ice Science Q Mengqi Zhang Jianqi Sun Jianqi Sun Jianqi Sun Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China
description	Spring extreme precipitation poses great challenges to agricultural production and economic development in southern China. From the perspective of prediction, the relationship between spring extreme precipitation frequency (SEPF) in southern China and preceding autumn snow cover over Eurasia is investigated. The results indicate that the southern China SEPF is significantly correlated with October snow cover in central Siberia. Corresponding to reduced October snow cover, the vertical propagation of planetary waves is suppressed, which leads to a strengthened stratospheric polar vortex from October to following December. The signal of the anomalous stratospheric polar vortex propagates downward to the surface, contributing to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern in December. The southwesterlies in the northern Eurasia-eastern Arctic associated with the positive NAO induce sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara seas in January–February, which then tends to enhance the vertical propagation of planetary waves by constructively interfering with the climatological wavenumber-1 component. Therefore, the stratosphere polar vortex is significantly weakened in spring, which further contributes to a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern in the troposphere. The negative spring AO is related to an anomalous cyclone in East Asia, which induces upward motion and moisture convergence in southern China, consequently providing favorable dynamic and moisture conditions for extreme precipitation in the region. The snow cover signal in central Siberia in the preceding October provides a potential source for the prediction of spring extreme precipitation variability in southern China with two seasons in advance.
format	article
author	Mengqi Zhang Jianqi Sun Jianqi Sun Jianqi Sun
author_facet	Mengqi Zhang Jianqi Sun Jianqi Sun Jianqi Sun
author_sort	Mengqi Zhang
title	Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China
title_short	Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China
title_full	Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China
title_fullStr	Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China
title_sort	impact of october snow cover in central siberia on the following spring extreme precipitation frequency in southern china
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f36db6b5d6b94b89937290c715492135
work_keys_str_mv	AT mengqizhang impactofoctobersnowcoverincentralsiberiaonthefollowingspringextremeprecipitationfrequencyinsouthernchina AT jianqisun impactofoctobersnowcoverincentralsiberiaonthefollowingspringextremeprecipitationfrequencyinsouthernchina AT jianqisun impactofoctobersnowcoverincentralsiberiaonthefollowingspringextremeprecipitationfrequencyinsouthernchina AT jianqisun impactofoctobersnowcoverincentralsiberiaonthefollowingspringextremeprecipitationfrequencyinsouthernchina
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Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China

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