A Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea

Ecological indicator approaches typically compare the prevailing state of an ecosystem component to a reference state reflecting good environmental conditions, i.e. the desirable state. However, defining the reference state is challenging due to a wide range of uncertainties related to natural varia...

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Autores principales: Mirka Laurila-Pant, Samu Mäntyniemi, Örjan Östman, Jens Olsson, Laura Uusitalo, Annukka Lehikoinen
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Elsevier 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/f50715dc82614d8eb9ea3459c755022d
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:f50715dc82614d8eb9ea3459c755022d2021-12-01T04:31:25ZA Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106975https://doaj.org/article/f50715dc82614d8eb9ea3459c755022d2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20309146https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XEcological indicator approaches typically compare the prevailing state of an ecosystem component to a reference state reflecting good environmental conditions, i.e. the desirable state. However, defining the reference state is challenging due to a wide range of uncertainties related to natural variability and measurement error in data, as well as ecological understanding. This study propose a novel probabilistic approach combining historical monitoring data and ecological understanding to estimate the uncertainty associated with the boundary value of an ecological indicator between good and poor environmental states. Bayesian inference is used to estimate the epistemic uncertainty about the true state of an indicator variable during an historical reference period. This approach replaces the traditional boundary value with probability distribution, indicating the uncertainty about the boundary between environmental states providing a transparent safety margin associated with the risk of misclassification of the indicator’s state. The approach is demonstrated by applying it to a time-series of an ecological status indicator, ‘Abundance of coastal key fish species’, included in HELCOM’s Baltic Sea regional status assessment. We suggest that acknowledgement of the uncertainty behind the final classification leads to more transparent and better-informed decision-making processes.Mirka Laurila-PantSamu MäntyniemiÖrjan ÖstmanJens OlssonLaura UusitaloAnnukka LehikoinenElsevierarticleStatus assessmentClassification uncertaintyMSFDPerca fluviatilisGood environmental statusEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 120, Iss , Pp 106975- (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Status assessment
Classification uncertainty
MSFD
Perca fluviatilis
Good environmental status
Ecology
QH540-549.5
spellingShingle Status assessment
Classification uncertainty
MSFD
Perca fluviatilis
Good environmental status
Ecology
QH540-549.5
Mirka Laurila-Pant
Samu Mäntyniemi
Örjan Östman
Jens Olsson
Laura Uusitalo
Annukka Lehikoinen
A Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea
description Ecological indicator approaches typically compare the prevailing state of an ecosystem component to a reference state reflecting good environmental conditions, i.e. the desirable state. However, defining the reference state is challenging due to a wide range of uncertainties related to natural variability and measurement error in data, as well as ecological understanding. This study propose a novel probabilistic approach combining historical monitoring data and ecological understanding to estimate the uncertainty associated with the boundary value of an ecological indicator between good and poor environmental states. Bayesian inference is used to estimate the epistemic uncertainty about the true state of an indicator variable during an historical reference period. This approach replaces the traditional boundary value with probability distribution, indicating the uncertainty about the boundary between environmental states providing a transparent safety margin associated with the risk of misclassification of the indicator’s state. The approach is demonstrated by applying it to a time-series of an ecological status indicator, ‘Abundance of coastal key fish species’, included in HELCOM’s Baltic Sea regional status assessment. We suggest that acknowledgement of the uncertainty behind the final classification leads to more transparent and better-informed decision-making processes.
format article
author Mirka Laurila-Pant
Samu Mäntyniemi
Örjan Östman
Jens Olsson
Laura Uusitalo
Annukka Lehikoinen
author_facet Mirka Laurila-Pant
Samu Mäntyniemi
Örjan Östman
Jens Olsson
Laura Uusitalo
Annukka Lehikoinen
author_sort Mirka Laurila-Pant
title A Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea
title_short A Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea
title_full A Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea
title_fullStr A Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea
title_full_unstemmed A Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea
title_sort bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – an example from a coastal fish indicator in the baltic sea
publisher Elsevier
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/f50715dc82614d8eb9ea3459c755022d
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