Potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (Field sandbur, Gramineae)

Field sandbur (Cenchrus spinifex Cav.) is an annual grass native to North America that has spread widely in South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and other regions, reducing crop and grassland productivity. In recent decades, global climate change and human activity have been linked to the spread o...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jing Cao, Jun Xu, Xubin Pan, Thomas A. Monaco, Kun Zhao, Deping Wang, Yuping Rong
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Elsevier 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/f5dd7f05ad0744639272fb4d175a0d62
Etiquetas: Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
id oai:doaj.org-article:f5dd7f05ad0744639272fb4d175a0d62
record_format dspace
spelling oai:doaj.org-article:f5dd7f05ad0744639272fb4d175a0d622021-12-01T05:00:39ZPotential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (Field sandbur, Gramineae)1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108204https://doaj.org/article/f5dd7f05ad0744639272fb4d175a0d622021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21008694https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XField sandbur (Cenchrus spinifex Cav.) is an annual grass native to North America that has spread widely in South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and other regions, reducing crop and grassland productivity. In recent decades, global climate change and human activity have been linked to the spread of C. spinifex and its impact on ecosystem and biodiversity. In order to characterize the role of climate change on this trend and highlight regions of high invasion risk, we used global distribution data and maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) to analyze suitable habitats based on four global climate models and two representative concentration pathways under different climate scenarios. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis method was also used to further verify the prediction accuracy of the model, which was statistically significant (AUC = 0.921). Climatically suitable areas of C. spinifex at present climate conditions were located at six continents including central South America, southern parts of North America and Africa, most of Mediterranean coastal European regions, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Future climate conditions may promote C. spinifex expansion into coastal regions. Meanwhile, C. spinifex in the northern hemisphere were expected to spread further southward (20-55°N; 30-55°S) compared to present potential geographical distribution. The suitable habitat area of C. spinifex would be slightly reduced in 2050 and 2070. Seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest quarter (bio15, bio17) and mean temperature of warmest and coldest quarter (bio10, bio11) could be the major environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of C. spinifex. Preventing the spread of C. spinifex in the future will require strict phytosanitary measures to reduce colonization of new regions, such as Japan, India, Russia, and Thailand. Our research provides a foundation to focus future management efforts and prioritize area of greatest ecological concern.Jing CaoJun XuXubin PanThomas A. MonacoKun ZhaoDeping WangYuping RongElsevierarticleField sandbur (Cenchrus spinifex)Invasive plantMaxEnt modelPotential geographical distributionRisk analysisEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 131, Iss , Pp 108204- (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Field sandbur (Cenchrus spinifex)
Invasive plant
MaxEnt model
Potential geographical distribution
Risk analysis
Ecology
QH540-549.5
spellingShingle Field sandbur (Cenchrus spinifex)
Invasive plant
MaxEnt model
Potential geographical distribution
Risk analysis
Ecology
QH540-549.5
Jing Cao
Jun Xu
Xubin Pan
Thomas A. Monaco
Kun Zhao
Deping Wang
Yuping Rong
Potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (Field sandbur, Gramineae)
description Field sandbur (Cenchrus spinifex Cav.) is an annual grass native to North America that has spread widely in South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and other regions, reducing crop and grassland productivity. In recent decades, global climate change and human activity have been linked to the spread of C. spinifex and its impact on ecosystem and biodiversity. In order to characterize the role of climate change on this trend and highlight regions of high invasion risk, we used global distribution data and maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) to analyze suitable habitats based on four global climate models and two representative concentration pathways under different climate scenarios. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis method was also used to further verify the prediction accuracy of the model, which was statistically significant (AUC = 0.921). Climatically suitable areas of C. spinifex at present climate conditions were located at six continents including central South America, southern parts of North America and Africa, most of Mediterranean coastal European regions, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Future climate conditions may promote C. spinifex expansion into coastal regions. Meanwhile, C. spinifex in the northern hemisphere were expected to spread further southward (20-55°N; 30-55°S) compared to present potential geographical distribution. The suitable habitat area of C. spinifex would be slightly reduced in 2050 and 2070. Seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest quarter (bio15, bio17) and mean temperature of warmest and coldest quarter (bio10, bio11) could be the major environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of C. spinifex. Preventing the spread of C. spinifex in the future will require strict phytosanitary measures to reduce colonization of new regions, such as Japan, India, Russia, and Thailand. Our research provides a foundation to focus future management efforts and prioritize area of greatest ecological concern.
format article
author Jing Cao
Jun Xu
Xubin Pan
Thomas A. Monaco
Kun Zhao
Deping Wang
Yuping Rong
author_facet Jing Cao
Jun Xu
Xubin Pan
Thomas A. Monaco
Kun Zhao
Deping Wang
Yuping Rong
author_sort Jing Cao
title Potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (Field sandbur, Gramineae)
title_short Potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (Field sandbur, Gramineae)
title_full Potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (Field sandbur, Gramineae)
title_fullStr Potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (Field sandbur, Gramineae)
title_full_unstemmed Potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (Field sandbur, Gramineae)
title_sort potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, cenchrus spinifex (field sandbur, gramineae)
publisher Elsevier
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/f5dd7f05ad0744639272fb4d175a0d62
work_keys_str_mv AT jingcao potentialimpactofclimatechangeontheglobalgeographicaldistributionoftheinvasivespeciescenchrusspinifexfieldsandburgramineae
AT junxu potentialimpactofclimatechangeontheglobalgeographicaldistributionoftheinvasivespeciescenchrusspinifexfieldsandburgramineae
AT xubinpan potentialimpactofclimatechangeontheglobalgeographicaldistributionoftheinvasivespeciescenchrusspinifexfieldsandburgramineae
AT thomasamonaco potentialimpactofclimatechangeontheglobalgeographicaldistributionoftheinvasivespeciescenchrusspinifexfieldsandburgramineae
AT kunzhao potentialimpactofclimatechangeontheglobalgeographicaldistributionoftheinvasivespeciescenchrusspinifexfieldsandburgramineae
AT depingwang potentialimpactofclimatechangeontheglobalgeographicaldistributionoftheinvasivespeciescenchrusspinifexfieldsandburgramineae
AT yupingrong potentialimpactofclimatechangeontheglobalgeographicaldistributionoftheinvasivespeciescenchrusspinifexfieldsandburgramineae
_version_ 1718405639666925568