Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission

Abstract The true risk of a COVID-19 resurgence as states reopen businesses is unknown. In this paper, we used anonymized cell-phone data to quantify the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission in business establishments by building a Business Risk Index that measures transmission risk over time. Th...

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Autores principales:	Ashley O’Donoghue, Tenzin Dechen, Whitney Pavlova, Michael Boals, Garba Moussa, Manvi Madan, Aalok Thakkar, Frank J. DeFalco, Jennifer P. Stevens
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics R858-859.7
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f64fc81b13a444f28595c17b6e05605a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f64fc81b13a444f28595c17b6e05605a2021-12-02T13:17:43ZReopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission10.1038/s41746-021-00420-92398-6352https://doaj.org/article/f64fc81b13a444f28595c17b6e05605a2021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-021-00420-9https://doaj.org/toc/2398-6352Abstract The true risk of a COVID-19 resurgence as states reopen businesses is unknown. In this paper, we used anonymized cell-phone data to quantify the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission in business establishments by building a Business Risk Index that measures transmission risk over time. The index was built using two metrics, visits per square foot and the average duration of visits, to account for both density of visits and length of time visitors linger in the business. We analyzed trends in traffic patterns to 1,272,260 businesses across eight states from January 2020 to June 2020. We found that potentially risky traffic behaviors at businesses decreased by 30% by April. Since the end of April, the risk index has been increasing as states reopen. There are some notable differences in trends across states and industries. Finally, we showed that the time series of the average Business Risk Index is useful for forecasting future COVID-19 cases at the county-level (P < 0.001). We found that an increase in a county’s average Business Risk Index is associated with an increase in positive COVID-19 cases in 1 week (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: (1.1–1.26)). Our risk index provides a way for policymakers and hospital decision-makers to monitor the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission from businesses based on the frequency and density of visits to businesses. This can serve as an important metric as states monitor and evaluate their reopening strategies.Ashley O’DonoghueTenzin DechenWhitney PavlovaMichael BoalsGarba MoussaManvi MadanAalok ThakkarFrank J. DeFalcoJennifer P. StevensNature PortfolioarticleComputer applications to medicine. Medical informaticsR858-859.7ENnpj Digital Medicine, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-5 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics R858-859.7
spellingShingle	Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics R858-859.7 Ashley O’Donoghue Tenzin Dechen Whitney Pavlova Michael Boals Garba Moussa Manvi Madan Aalok Thakkar Frank J. DeFalco Jennifer P. Stevens Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission
description	Abstract The true risk of a COVID-19 resurgence as states reopen businesses is unknown. In this paper, we used anonymized cell-phone data to quantify the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission in business establishments by building a Business Risk Index that measures transmission risk over time. The index was built using two metrics, visits per square foot and the average duration of visits, to account for both density of visits and length of time visitors linger in the business. We analyzed trends in traffic patterns to 1,272,260 businesses across eight states from January 2020 to June 2020. We found that potentially risky traffic behaviors at businesses decreased by 30% by April. Since the end of April, the risk index has been increasing as states reopen. There are some notable differences in trends across states and industries. Finally, we showed that the time series of the average Business Risk Index is useful for forecasting future COVID-19 cases at the county-level (P < 0.001). We found that an increase in a county’s average Business Risk Index is associated with an increase in positive COVID-19 cases in 1 week (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: (1.1–1.26)). Our risk index provides a way for policymakers and hospital decision-makers to monitor the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission from businesses based on the frequency and density of visits to businesses. This can serve as an important metric as states monitor and evaluate their reopening strategies.
format	article
author	Ashley O’Donoghue Tenzin Dechen Whitney Pavlova Michael Boals Garba Moussa Manvi Madan Aalok Thakkar Frank J. DeFalco Jennifer P. Stevens
author_facet	Ashley O’Donoghue Tenzin Dechen Whitney Pavlova Michael Boals Garba Moussa Manvi Madan Aalok Thakkar Frank J. DeFalco Jennifer P. Stevens
author_sort	Ashley O’Donoghue
title	Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission
title_short	Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission
title_full	Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission
title_fullStr	Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission
title_full_unstemmed	Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission
title_sort	reopening businesses and risk of covid-19 transmission
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f64fc81b13a444f28595c17b6e05605a
work_keys_str_mv	AT ashleyodonoghue reopeningbusinessesandriskofcovid19transmission AT tenzindechen reopeningbusinessesandriskofcovid19transmission AT whitneypavlova reopeningbusinessesandriskofcovid19transmission AT michaelboals reopeningbusinessesandriskofcovid19transmission AT garbamoussa reopeningbusinessesandriskofcovid19transmission AT manvimadan reopeningbusinessesandriskofcovid19transmission AT aalokthakkar reopeningbusinessesandriskofcovid19transmission AT frankjdefalco reopeningbusinessesandriskofcovid19transmission AT jenniferpstevens reopeningbusinessesandriskofcovid19transmission
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Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission

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