Un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM

The process of enlargement of the European Union is continuous, involving in 2004 ten Central or Oriental European Countries (PECO), and later some Mediterranean countries (PTM). But the EU still asks important questions: what are the candidate countries which will be included first? What will this...

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Autores principales:	Didier Josselin, Bernadette Nicot
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	DE EN FR IT PT
Publicado:	Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités 2003
Materias:	European Union exploratory data analysis (EDA) gravity model Central and Oriental Europe international trade Mediterranean countries Geography (General) G1-922
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f6f96cc5ffd0453a9328f453cd544232
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:f6f96cc5ffd0453a9328f453cd544232
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f6f96cc5ffd0453a9328f453cd5442322021-12-02T11:09:05ZUn modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM1278-336610.4000/cybergeo.4219https://doaj.org/article/f6f96cc5ffd0453a9328f453cd5442322003-03-01T00:00:00Zhttp://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/4219https://doaj.org/toc/1278-3366The process of enlargement of the European Union is continuous, involving in 2004 ten Central or Oriental European Countries (PECO), and later some Mediterranean countries (PTM). But the EU still asks important questions: what are the candidate countries which will be included first? What will this process induce on European relationship? How high is the risk that some other countries may be evicted (in terms of trade) due to other countries integration? This paper aims to understand more precisely the global potential trade evolution between actual and future EU included oriental or Mediterranean countries. We try to enhance economical factors and geographical constraints which explain trade levels between (groups of) countries. We first model the trade flows for each aggregate of countries. Then, we simulate and assess the impact of including other (blocs of) countries to the UE model and both EU and PTM aggregates. Our study uses classical gravity modelling (designed by Bergstrand and Festoc) and compute data (obtained from the Chelem database) mainly from 1993 to 1997. We add to the model the foreign investments in each country, the contiguity levels between countries and the distance separating country centres. Our approach includes flow modelling, simulations of integration processes and a comparison of relative economical elasticities between the different models.Didier JosselinBernadette NicotUnité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-citésarticleEuropean Unionexploratory data analysis (EDA)gravity modelCentral and Oriental Europeinternational tradeMediterranean countriesGeography (General)G1-922DEENFRITPTCybergeo (2003)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	DE EN FR IT PT
topic	European Union exploratory data analysis (EDA) gravity model Central and Oriental Europe international trade Mediterranean countries Geography (General) G1-922
spellingShingle	European Union exploratory data analysis (EDA) gravity model Central and Oriental Europe international trade Mediterranean countries Geography (General) G1-922 Didier Josselin Bernadette Nicot Un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM
description	The process of enlargement of the European Union is continuous, involving in 2004 ten Central or Oriental European Countries (PECO), and later some Mediterranean countries (PTM). But the EU still asks important questions: what are the candidate countries which will be included first? What will this process induce on European relationship? How high is the risk that some other countries may be evicted (in terms of trade) due to other countries integration? This paper aims to understand more precisely the global potential trade evolution between actual and future EU included oriental or Mediterranean countries. We try to enhance economical factors and geographical constraints which explain trade levels between (groups of) countries. We first model the trade flows for each aggregate of countries. Then, we simulate and assess the impact of including other (blocs of) countries to the UE model and both EU and PTM aggregates. Our study uses classical gravity modelling (designed by Bergstrand and Festoc) and compute data (obtained from the Chelem database) mainly from 1993 to 1997. We add to the model the foreign investments in each country, the contiguity levels between countries and the distance separating country centres. Our approach includes flow modelling, simulations of integration processes and a comparison of relative economical elasticities between the different models.
format	article
author	Didier Josselin Bernadette Nicot
author_facet	Didier Josselin Bernadette Nicot
author_sort	Didier Josselin
title	Un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM
title_short	Un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM
title_full	Un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM
title_fullStr	Un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM
title_full_unstemmed	Un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM
title_sort	un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’u.e., les peco et les ptm
publisher	Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités
publishDate	2003
url	https://doaj.org/article/f6f96cc5ffd0453a9328f453cd544232
work_keys_str_mv	AT didierjosselin unmodelegravitairegeoeconomiquedesechangescommerciauxentrelespaysdeluelespecoetlesptm AT bernadettenicot unmodelegravitairegeoeconomiquedesechangescommerciauxentrelespaysdeluelespecoetlesptm
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Un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM

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