Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China

Abstract Global climate change is causing notable shifts in the environmental suitability of the main regions involved in potato cultivation and has, thus, changed the production potential of potatoes. These shifts can be mapped at fine scales to better understand climate change within areas of pota...

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Autores principales:	Yaqiu Zhu, Qiang Yu, Qiyou Luo, Hua Zhang, Jinling Zhao, Zhanghong Ju, Yating Du, Yadong Yang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f707fe2e830543bc9d166eb0afaa077a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f707fe2e830543bc9d166eb0afaa077a2021-12-02T19:13:48ZImpacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China10.1038/s41598-021-91273-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/f707fe2e830543bc9d166eb0afaa077a2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91273-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Global climate change is causing notable shifts in the environmental suitability of the main regions involved in potato cultivation and has, thus, changed the production potential of potatoes. These shifts can be mapped at fine scales to better understand climate change within areas of potato cultivation and to find infrastructural- and breeding-based solutions. As a case study, we have identified and mapped the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in areas suitable for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, China. We identified a discontinuity in climate change trends between 1961 and 2018 based on data for Jilin Province, and analyzed the averages and linear trends for six important climatic parameters. We used the averages of these climatic parameters to establish climate models for the province and determined cultivation using a multi-criteria, decision-based model that integrates Analytical Hierarchy Process Weighted Principal Component Analysis (AHP-PCA) and Geographic Information System (GIS). We mapped the environmentally suitable areas for potato cultivation at a 3-km resolution based on the geo-climate model for each time period and analyzed differences between them. We found that "Most suitable” areas for potato cultivation were mainly distributed in the central area of Jilin Province, “Suitable” areas were located in the northwestern plains, and “Sub-suitable” areas were located in the eastern mountainous areas. In contrast, “Not suitable” areas occur mainly in the high-altitude areas in the east. The areas of “Most suitable” and “Suitable” areas for potato cultivation in Jilin Province were increasing, with increasing rates of 0.37 × 1,000 km2 decade−1 (R2 = 0.58, P < 0.01) and 0.20 × 1,000 km2 decade−1 (R2 = 0.28, P < 0.01), respectively, while the extent of “Sub-suitable” areas is decreasing, with a decreasing rate of 0.58 × 1,000 km2 decade−1 (R2 = 0.53, P < 0.05). The area of “Not suitable” areas had undergone little change. “Most suitable” and “Suitable” areas for potato cultivation showed a trend towards northward expansion. Overall, our results suggest that global climate change has had a positive impact on potato cultivation in Jilin Province over the past 58 years.Yaqiu ZhuQiang YuQiyou LuoHua ZhangJinling ZhaoZhanghong JuYating DuYadong YangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yaqiu Zhu Qiang Yu Qiyou Luo Hua Zhang Jinling Zhao Zhanghong Ju Yating Du Yadong Yang Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China
description	Abstract Global climate change is causing notable shifts in the environmental suitability of the main regions involved in potato cultivation and has, thus, changed the production potential of potatoes. These shifts can be mapped at fine scales to better understand climate change within areas of potato cultivation and to find infrastructural- and breeding-based solutions. As a case study, we have identified and mapped the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in areas suitable for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, China. We identified a discontinuity in climate change trends between 1961 and 2018 based on data for Jilin Province, and analyzed the averages and linear trends for six important climatic parameters. We used the averages of these climatic parameters to establish climate models for the province and determined cultivation using a multi-criteria, decision-based model that integrates Analytical Hierarchy Process Weighted Principal Component Analysis (AHP-PCA) and Geographic Information System (GIS). We mapped the environmentally suitable areas for potato cultivation at a 3-km resolution based on the geo-climate model for each time period and analyzed differences between them. We found that "Most suitable” areas for potato cultivation were mainly distributed in the central area of Jilin Province, “Suitable” areas were located in the northwestern plains, and “Sub-suitable” areas were located in the eastern mountainous areas. In contrast, “Not suitable” areas occur mainly in the high-altitude areas in the east. The areas of “Most suitable” and “Suitable” areas for potato cultivation in Jilin Province were increasing, with increasing rates of 0.37 × 1,000 km2 decade−1 (R2 = 0.58, P < 0.01) and 0.20 × 1,000 km2 decade−1 (R2 = 0.28, P < 0.01), respectively, while the extent of “Sub-suitable” areas is decreasing, with a decreasing rate of 0.58 × 1,000 km2 decade−1 (R2 = 0.53, P < 0.05). The area of “Not suitable” areas had undergone little change. “Most suitable” and “Suitable” areas for potato cultivation showed a trend towards northward expansion. Overall, our results suggest that global climate change has had a positive impact on potato cultivation in Jilin Province over the past 58 years.
format	article
author	Yaqiu Zhu Qiang Yu Qiyou Luo Hua Zhang Jinling Zhao Zhanghong Ju Yating Du Yadong Yang
author_facet	Yaqiu Zhu Qiang Yu Qiyou Luo Hua Zhang Jinling Zhao Zhanghong Ju Yating Du Yadong Yang
author_sort	Yaqiu Zhu
title	Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China
title_short	Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China
title_full	Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China
title_fullStr	Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China
title_full_unstemmed	Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China
title_sort	impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in jilin province, northeast china
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f707fe2e830543bc9d166eb0afaa077a
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_version_	1718377033007890432

Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China

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