Future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble.

Sufficient samples of extreme precipitation events are needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the probability of their occurrence. Here, we use a large ensemble simulation with 50 members from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8...

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Autores principales:	Yang Li, Jingyi Bai, Zhiwei You, Jun Hou, Wei Li
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f743f5ddb8084d48b7a01d3b0b6a422b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f743f5ddb8084d48b7a01d3b0b6a422b2021-12-02T20:11:15ZFuture changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0252133https://doaj.org/article/f743f5ddb8084d48b7a01d3b0b6a422b2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252133https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Sufficient samples of extreme precipitation events are needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the probability of their occurrence. Here, we use a large ensemble simulation with 50 members from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario to give future projection of the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events under different warming levels relative to the current climate over China. A bias-correction method based on quantile mapping is first used to remove systematic biases in the ensemble. The return value and return period are obtained by fitting enough annual maximum precipitation samples with the generalized extreme value to represent the intensity and frequency of extreme events, respectively. The results show that the average intensity of extreme precipitation in China will increase by nearly 8% per 1°C of global warming, which closely follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Rarer extreme events will experience greater changes in frequency, especially under higher warming. The nationally averaged extreme precipitation events, presently expected to occur every 50 years (100 years) under the current climate conditions, are expected to occur approximately every 41 years (82 years), 32 years (62 years), 22 years (42 years) and 15 years (29 years) under warming levels of 1.5, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0°C, respectively. Northwestern China (NW), southwestern China (SW) and the Yangtze River valley (YZ) exhibit the greatest increase in probability ratio (PR) under future climate condition. The risk of extreme precipitation events, currently expected to occur once every 50 years, will be nearly 11 (21) times more likely to occur under a climate warming by 3.0°C (4.0°C). Limiting warming to 1.5°C will help avoid approximately 40%-50%, 70%-80% and over 90% of the increase in the risk of extreme events in almost all subregions if the global mean surface temperature (GMST) continues warming to 2.0°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C, respectively. Our study provides a useful information for the understanding the impact of climate change on the future risk of extreme events over China.Yang LiJingyi BaiZhiwei YouJun HouWei LiPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 5, p e0252133 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yang Li Jingyi Bai Zhiwei You Jun Hou Wei Li Future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble.
description	Sufficient samples of extreme precipitation events are needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the probability of their occurrence. Here, we use a large ensemble simulation with 50 members from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario to give future projection of the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events under different warming levels relative to the current climate over China. A bias-correction method based on quantile mapping is first used to remove systematic biases in the ensemble. The return value and return period are obtained by fitting enough annual maximum precipitation samples with the generalized extreme value to represent the intensity and frequency of extreme events, respectively. The results show that the average intensity of extreme precipitation in China will increase by nearly 8% per 1°C of global warming, which closely follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Rarer extreme events will experience greater changes in frequency, especially under higher warming. The nationally averaged extreme precipitation events, presently expected to occur every 50 years (100 years) under the current climate conditions, are expected to occur approximately every 41 years (82 years), 32 years (62 years), 22 years (42 years) and 15 years (29 years) under warming levels of 1.5, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0°C, respectively. Northwestern China (NW), southwestern China (SW) and the Yangtze River valley (YZ) exhibit the greatest increase in probability ratio (PR) under future climate condition. The risk of extreme precipitation events, currently expected to occur once every 50 years, will be nearly 11 (21) times more likely to occur under a climate warming by 3.0°C (4.0°C). Limiting warming to 1.5°C will help avoid approximately 40%-50%, 70%-80% and over 90% of the increase in the risk of extreme events in almost all subregions if the global mean surface temperature (GMST) continues warming to 2.0°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C, respectively. Our study provides a useful information for the understanding the impact of climate change on the future risk of extreme events over China.
format	article
author	Yang Li Jingyi Bai Zhiwei You Jun Hou Wei Li
author_facet	Yang Li Jingyi Bai Zhiwei You Jun Hou Wei Li
author_sort	Yang Li
title	Future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble.
title_short	Future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble.
title_full	Future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble.
title_fullStr	Future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble.
title_full_unstemmed	Future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble.
title_sort	future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over china in a warmer world: insight from a large ensemble.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f743f5ddb8084d48b7a01d3b0b6a422b
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Future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble.

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