Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya

In an era of anthropocene, threatened and endemic species with small population sizes and habitat specialists experience a greater global conservation concern in view of being at higher risk of extinction. Predicting and plotting appropriate potential habitats for such species is a rational method f...

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Autores principales:	Ishfaq Ahmad Wani, Susheel Verma, Priyanka Kumari, Bipin Charles, Maha J. Hashim, Hamed A. El-Serehy
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f789044829e74897a896762050ad23f1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f789044829e74897a896762050ad23f12021-11-25T06:19:37ZEcological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya1932-6203https://doaj.org/article/f789044829e74897a896762050ad23f12021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8601538/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203In an era of anthropocene, threatened and endemic species with small population sizes and habitat specialists experience a greater global conservation concern in view of being at higher risk of extinction. Predicting and plotting appropriate potential habitats for such species is a rational method for monitoring and restoring their dwindling populations in expected territories. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) coalesces species existence sites with environmental raster layers to construct models that describe possible distributions of plant species. The present study is aimed to study the potential distribution and cultivation hotspots for reintroducing the high value, vulnerable medicinal herb (Rheum webbianum) in the Union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh using population attributes and ecological niche modelling approach. Sixty-three populations inventoried from twenty-eight areas display a significant change in the phytosociological attributes on account of various anthropogenic threats. The current potential habitats coincide with actual distribution records and the mean value of Area Under Curve (AUC) was 0.98 and the line of predicted omission was almost adjacent to omission in training samples, thus validating a robustness of the model. The potential habitat suitability map based on the current climatic conditions predicted a total of 103760 km2 as suitable area for the growth of Rheum webbianum. Under the future climatic conditions, there is a significant reduction in the habitat suitability ranging from -78531.34 Km2 (RCP 4.5 for 2050) to -77325.81 (RCP 8.5 for 2070). Furthermore, there is a slight increase in the suitable habitats under future climatic conditions, ranging from +21.99 Km2 under RCP 8.5 (2050) to +3.14 Km2 under RCP 4.5 (2070). The Jackknife tests indicated Precipitation of Driest Month (BIO14) as the most contributing climatic variable in governing the distribution of R. webbianum. Therefore, scientifically sound management strategies are urgently needed to save whatever populations are left in-situ to protect this species from getting extinct. Present results can be used by conservationists for mitigating the biodiversity decline and exploring undocumented populations of R. webbianum on one hand and by policymakers in implementing the policy of conservation of species with specific habitat requirements by launching species recovery programmes in future on the other.Ishfaq Ahmad WaniSusheel VermaPriyanka KumariBipin CharlesMaha J. HashimHamed A. El-SerehyPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ishfaq Ahmad Wani Susheel Verma Priyanka Kumari Bipin Charles Maha J. Hashim Hamed A. El-Serehy Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya
description	In an era of anthropocene, threatened and endemic species with small population sizes and habitat specialists experience a greater global conservation concern in view of being at higher risk of extinction. Predicting and plotting appropriate potential habitats for such species is a rational method for monitoring and restoring their dwindling populations in expected territories. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) coalesces species existence sites with environmental raster layers to construct models that describe possible distributions of plant species. The present study is aimed to study the potential distribution and cultivation hotspots for reintroducing the high value, vulnerable medicinal herb (Rheum webbianum) in the Union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh using population attributes and ecological niche modelling approach. Sixty-three populations inventoried from twenty-eight areas display a significant change in the phytosociological attributes on account of various anthropogenic threats. The current potential habitats coincide with actual distribution records and the mean value of Area Under Curve (AUC) was 0.98 and the line of predicted omission was almost adjacent to omission in training samples, thus validating a robustness of the model. The potential habitat suitability map based on the current climatic conditions predicted a total of 103760 km2 as suitable area for the growth of Rheum webbianum. Under the future climatic conditions, there is a significant reduction in the habitat suitability ranging from -78531.34 Km2 (RCP 4.5 for 2050) to -77325.81 (RCP 8.5 for 2070). Furthermore, there is a slight increase in the suitable habitats under future climatic conditions, ranging from +21.99 Km2 under RCP 8.5 (2050) to +3.14 Km2 under RCP 4.5 (2070). The Jackknife tests indicated Precipitation of Driest Month (BIO14) as the most contributing climatic variable in governing the distribution of R. webbianum. Therefore, scientifically sound management strategies are urgently needed to save whatever populations are left in-situ to protect this species from getting extinct. Present results can be used by conservationists for mitigating the biodiversity decline and exploring undocumented populations of R. webbianum on one hand and by policymakers in implementing the policy of conservation of species with specific habitat requirements by launching species recovery programmes in future on the other.
format	article
author	Ishfaq Ahmad Wani Susheel Verma Priyanka Kumari Bipin Charles Maha J. Hashim Hamed A. El-Serehy
author_facet	Ishfaq Ahmad Wani Susheel Verma Priyanka Kumari Bipin Charles Maha J. Hashim Hamed A. El-Serehy
author_sort	Ishfaq Ahmad Wani
title	Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya
title_short	Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya
title_full	Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya
title_fullStr	Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya
title_full_unstemmed	Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya
title_sort	ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of himalayan rhubarb (rheum webbianum royle) in northwest himalaya
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f789044829e74897a896762050ad23f1
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Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya

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