Assessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa

<p>Floods are natural disasters that widely affect people and goods. Its frequency and magnitude are projected to substantially increase due to the ongoing environmental change. At regional and national levels, some efforts have been made in predicting floods at a short-term range. However, th...

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Autores principales:	J. Hounkpè, D. F. Badou, A. Y. Bossa, Y. Yira, J. Adounkpè, E. A. Alamou, E. A. Lawin, L. O. C. Sintondji, A. A. Afouda, E. Amoussou
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f79c3acc7b8a48e993757d0bb060a6ed
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f79c3acc7b8a48e993757d0bb060a6ed2021-11-16T07:11:19ZAssessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa10.5194/piahs-384-219-20212199-89812199-899Xhttps://doaj.org/article/f79c3acc7b8a48e993757d0bb060a6ed2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/384/219/2021/piahs-384-219-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/2199-8981https://doaj.org/toc/2199-899X<p>Floods are natural disasters that widely affect people and goods. Its frequency and magnitude are projected to substantially increase due to the ongoing environmental change. At regional and national levels, some efforts have been made in predicting floods at a short-term range. However, the usefulness of flood prediction increases as the time lead increases. The objective of this work is therefore to investigate flood sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa as a basis for seasonal flood forecasting. The methodology consists of optimizing the relationship between Annual Maximal Discharge (AMD), a proxy for flood discharge and various climate indexes using correlation coefficient, linear regression and statistical modeling based on 56 river gauging stations across West Africa. The climate indexes considered are the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA), SST of the Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA), the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) of the Southern Oscillation Indexes (SOI) and the detrended El-Nino Southern Oscillation indexes. It was found that SOI/SLP indexes are the most strongly related to the AMD for the investigated stations with generally high, positive, and statistically significant correlation. The TSA/SST indexes indicated both positive and negative statistically significant correlations with river discharge in the region. The percentage change in AMD per unit change in SOI/SLP for most of the statistically significant stations is within 10 % and 50 % indicating a strong relationship between these two variables. This relationship could serve as a basis for seasonal flood forecasting in the study area.</p>J. HounkpèJ. HounkpèD. F. BadouA. Y. BossaY. YiraJ. AdounkpèE. A. AlamouE. A. LawinE. A. LawinL. O. C. SintondjiA. A. AfoudaE. AmoussouCopernicus PublicationsarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350GeologyQE1-996.5ENProceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Vol 384, Pp 219-224 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 J. Hounkpè J. Hounkpè D. F. Badou A. Y. Bossa Y. Yira J. Adounkpè E. A. Alamou E. A. Lawin E. A. Lawin L. O. C. Sintondji A. A. Afouda E. Amoussou Assessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa
description	<p>Floods are natural disasters that widely affect people and goods. Its frequency and magnitude are projected to substantially increase due to the ongoing environmental change. At regional and national levels, some efforts have been made in predicting floods at a short-term range. However, the usefulness of flood prediction increases as the time lead increases. The objective of this work is therefore to investigate flood sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa as a basis for seasonal flood forecasting. The methodology consists of optimizing the relationship between Annual Maximal Discharge (AMD), a proxy for flood discharge and various climate indexes using correlation coefficient, linear regression and statistical modeling based on 56 river gauging stations across West Africa. The climate indexes considered are the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA), SST of the Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA), the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) of the Southern Oscillation Indexes (SOI) and the detrended El-Nino Southern Oscillation indexes. It was found that SOI/SLP indexes are the most strongly related to the AMD for the investigated stations with generally high, positive, and statistically significant correlation. The TSA/SST indexes indicated both positive and negative statistically significant correlations with river discharge in the region. The percentage change in AMD per unit change in SOI/SLP for most of the statistically significant stations is within 10 % and 50 % indicating a strong relationship between these two variables. This relationship could serve as a basis for seasonal flood forecasting in the study area.</p>
format	article
author	J. Hounkpè J. Hounkpè D. F. Badou A. Y. Bossa Y. Yira J. Adounkpè E. A. Alamou E. A. Lawin E. A. Lawin L. O. C. Sintondji A. A. Afouda E. Amoussou
author_facet	J. Hounkpè J. Hounkpè D. F. Badou A. Y. Bossa Y. Yira J. Adounkpè E. A. Alamou E. A. Lawin E. A. Lawin L. O. C. Sintondji A. A. Afouda E. Amoussou
author_sort	J. Hounkpè
title	Assessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa
title_short	Assessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa
title_full	Assessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa
title_fullStr	Assessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa
title_sort	assessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in west africa
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f79c3acc7b8a48e993757d0bb060a6ed
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Assessment of flood discharge sensitivity to climate indexes in West Africa

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