Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China

Abstract The surveillance of infectious diseases is of great importance for disease control and prevention, and more attention should be paid to the Class B notifiable diseases in China. Meanwhile, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the annual growth of Chinese gross domestic produc...

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Autores principales:	Tao Zhang, Fei Yin, Ting Zhou, Xing-Yu Zhang, Xiao-Song Li
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2016
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f7ceaebdaf744b048af82e9fb2f506bf
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f7ceaebdaf744b048af82e9fb2f506bf2021-12-02T15:05:52ZMultivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China10.1038/s41598-016-0020-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/f7ceaebdaf744b048af82e9fb2f506bf2016-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-016-0020-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The surveillance of infectious diseases is of great importance for disease control and prevention, and more attention should be paid to the Class B notifiable diseases in China. Meanwhile, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the annual growth of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) would decelerate below 7% after many years of soaring. Under such circumstances, this study aimed to answer what will happen to the incidence rates of infectious diseases in China if Chinese GDP growth remained below 7% in the next five years. Firstly, time plots and cross-correlation matrices were presented to illustrate the characteristics of data. Then, the multivariate time series (MTS) models were proposed to explore the dynamic relationship between incidence rates and GDP. Three kinds of MTS models, i.e., vector auto-regressive (VAR) model for original series, VAR model for differenced series and error-correction model (ECM), were considered in this study. The rank of error-correction term was taken as an indicator for model selection. Finally, our results suggested that four kinds of infectious diseases (epidemic hemorrhagic fever, pertussis, scarlet fever and syphilis) might need attention in China because their incidence rates have increased since the year 2010.Tao ZhangFei YinTing ZhouXing-Yu ZhangXiao-Song LiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2016)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tao Zhang Fei Yin Ting Zhou Xing-Yu Zhang Xiao-Song Li Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China
description	Abstract The surveillance of infectious diseases is of great importance for disease control and prevention, and more attention should be paid to the Class B notifiable diseases in China. Meanwhile, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the annual growth of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) would decelerate below 7% after many years of soaring. Under such circumstances, this study aimed to answer what will happen to the incidence rates of infectious diseases in China if Chinese GDP growth remained below 7% in the next five years. Firstly, time plots and cross-correlation matrices were presented to illustrate the characteristics of data. Then, the multivariate time series (MTS) models were proposed to explore the dynamic relationship between incidence rates and GDP. Three kinds of MTS models, i.e., vector auto-regressive (VAR) model for original series, VAR model for differenced series and error-correction model (ECM), were considered in this study. The rank of error-correction term was taken as an indicator for model selection. Finally, our results suggested that four kinds of infectious diseases (epidemic hemorrhagic fever, pertussis, scarlet fever and syphilis) might need attention in China because their incidence rates have increased since the year 2010.
format	article
author	Tao Zhang Fei Yin Ting Zhou Xing-Yu Zhang Xiao-Song Li
author_facet	Tao Zhang Fei Yin Ting Zhou Xing-Yu Zhang Xiao-Song Li
author_sort	Tao Zhang
title	Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China
title_short	Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China
title_full	Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China
title_fullStr	Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China
title_full_unstemmed	Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China
title_sort	multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between class b notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (gdp) in china
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2016
url	https://doaj.org/article/f7ceaebdaf744b048af82e9fb2f506bf
work_keys_str_mv	AT taozhang multivariatetimeseriesanalysisonthedynamicrelationshipbetweenclassbnotifiablediseasesandgrossdomesticproductgdpinchina AT feiyin multivariatetimeseriesanalysisonthedynamicrelationshipbetweenclassbnotifiablediseasesandgrossdomesticproductgdpinchina AT tingzhou multivariatetimeseriesanalysisonthedynamicrelationshipbetweenclassbnotifiablediseasesandgrossdomesticproductgdpinchina AT xingyuzhang multivariatetimeseriesanalysisonthedynamicrelationshipbetweenclassbnotifiablediseasesandgrossdomesticproductgdpinchina AT xiaosongli multivariatetimeseriesanalysisonthedynamicrelationshipbetweenclassbnotifiablediseasesandgrossdomesticproductgdpinchina
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Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China

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