Structural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of SARS-CoV-2
Abstract Climate seems to influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but the findings of the studies performed so far are conflicting. To overcome these issues, we performed a global scale study considering 134,871 virologic-climatic-demographic data (209 countries, first 16 weeks of the pandemic). To anal...
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2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:f7e2fce9022f4728842a5b2332ad270f2021-12-02T14:26:16ZStructural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of SARS-CoV-210.1038/s41598-021-87113-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/f7e2fce9022f4728842a5b2332ad270f2021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87113-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Climate seems to influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but the findings of the studies performed so far are conflicting. To overcome these issues, we performed a global scale study considering 134,871 virologic-climatic-demographic data (209 countries, first 16 weeks of the pandemic). To analyze the relation among COVID-19, population density, and climate, a theoretical path diagram was hypothesized and tested using structural equation modeling (SEM), a powerful statistical technique for the evaluation of causal assumptions. The results of the analysis showed that both climate and population density significantly influence the spread of COVID-19 (p < 0.001 and p < 0.01, respectively). Overall, climate outweighs population density (path coefficients: climate vs. incidence = 0.18, climate vs. prevalence = 0.11, population density vs. incidence = 0.04, population density vs. prevalence = 0.05). Among the climatic factors, irradiation plays the most relevant role, with a factor-loading of − 0.77, followed by temperature (− 0.56), humidity (0.52), precipitation (0.44), and pressure (0.073); for all p < 0.001. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that climatic factors significantly influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, demographic factors, together with other determinants, can affect the transmission, and their influence may overcome the protective effect of climate, where favourable.Alessia SpadaFrancesco Antonio TucciAldo UmmarinoPaolo Pio CiavarellaNicholas CalàVincenzo TroianoMichele CaputoRaffaele IanzanoSilvia CorboMarco de BiaseNicola FasciaChiara ForteGiorgio GambacortaGabriele MaccioneGiuseppina PrencipeMichele TomaiuoloAntonio TucciNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021) |
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Medicine R Science Q Alessia Spada Francesco Antonio Tucci Aldo Ummarino Paolo Pio Ciavarella Nicholas Calà Vincenzo Troiano Michele Caputo Raffaele Ianzano Silvia Corbo Marco de Biase Nicola Fascia Chiara Forte Giorgio Gambacorta Gabriele Maccione Giuseppina Prencipe Michele Tomaiuolo Antonio Tucci Structural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 |
| description |
Abstract Climate seems to influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but the findings of the studies performed so far are conflicting. To overcome these issues, we performed a global scale study considering 134,871 virologic-climatic-demographic data (209 countries, first 16 weeks of the pandemic). To analyze the relation among COVID-19, population density, and climate, a theoretical path diagram was hypothesized and tested using structural equation modeling (SEM), a powerful statistical technique for the evaluation of causal assumptions. The results of the analysis showed that both climate and population density significantly influence the spread of COVID-19 (p < 0.001 and p < 0.01, respectively). Overall, climate outweighs population density (path coefficients: climate vs. incidence = 0.18, climate vs. prevalence = 0.11, population density vs. incidence = 0.04, population density vs. prevalence = 0.05). Among the climatic factors, irradiation plays the most relevant role, with a factor-loading of − 0.77, followed by temperature (− 0.56), humidity (0.52), precipitation (0.44), and pressure (0.073); for all p < 0.001. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that climatic factors significantly influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, demographic factors, together with other determinants, can affect the transmission, and their influence may overcome the protective effect of climate, where favourable. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Alessia Spada Francesco Antonio Tucci Aldo Ummarino Paolo Pio Ciavarella Nicholas Calà Vincenzo Troiano Michele Caputo Raffaele Ianzano Silvia Corbo Marco de Biase Nicola Fascia Chiara Forte Giorgio Gambacorta Gabriele Maccione Giuseppina Prencipe Michele Tomaiuolo Antonio Tucci |
| author_facet |
Alessia Spada Francesco Antonio Tucci Aldo Ummarino Paolo Pio Ciavarella Nicholas Calà Vincenzo Troiano Michele Caputo Raffaele Ianzano Silvia Corbo Marco de Biase Nicola Fascia Chiara Forte Giorgio Gambacorta Gabriele Maccione Giuseppina Prencipe Michele Tomaiuolo Antonio Tucci |
| author_sort |
Alessia Spada |
| title |
Structural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_short |
Structural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_full |
Structural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_fullStr |
Structural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Structural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_sort |
structural equation modeling to shed light on the controversial role of climate on the spread of sars-cov-2 |
| publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/f7e2fce9022f4728842a5b2332ad270f |
| work_keys_str_mv |
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