Cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory

Abstract Invasive species can lead to community-level damage to the invaded ecosystem and extinction of native species. Most surveillance systems for the detection of invasive species are developed based on expert assessment, inherently coming with a level of uncertainty. In this research, info-gap...

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Autores principales:	Yang Liu, Penghao Wang, Melissa L. Thomas, Dan Zheng, Simon J. McKirdy
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f856f61faad54f20938283a1c63d2f72
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f856f61faad54f20938283a1c63d2f722021-11-28T12:19:41ZCost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory10.1038/s41598-021-02299-82045-2322https://doaj.org/article/f856f61faad54f20938283a1c63d2f722021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02299-8https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Invasive species can lead to community-level damage to the invaded ecosystem and extinction of native species. Most surveillance systems for the detection of invasive species are developed based on expert assessment, inherently coming with a level of uncertainty. In this research, info-gap decision theory (IGDT) is applied to model and manage such uncertainty. Surveillance of the Asian House Gecko, Hemidactylus frenatus Duméril and Bibron, 1836 on Barrow Island, is used as a case study. Our research provides a novel method for applying IGDT to determine the population threshold ( $$K$$ K ) so that the decision can be robust to the deep uncertainty present in model parameters. We further robust-optimize surveillance costs rather than minimize surveillance costs. We demonstrate that increasing the population threshold for detection increases both robustness to the errors in the model parameter estimates, and opportuneness to lower surveillance costs than the accepted maximum budget. This paper provides guidance for decision makers to balance robustness and required surveillance expenditure. IGDT offers a novel method to model and manage the uncertainty prevalent in biodiversity conservation practices and modelling. The method outlined here can be used to design robust surveillance systems for invasive species in a wider context, and to better tackle uncertainty in protection of biodiversity and native species in a cost-effective manner.Yang LiuPenghao WangMelissa L. ThomasDan ZhengSimon J. McKirdyNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yang Liu Penghao Wang Melissa L. Thomas Dan Zheng Simon J. McKirdy Cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory
description	Abstract Invasive species can lead to community-level damage to the invaded ecosystem and extinction of native species. Most surveillance systems for the detection of invasive species are developed based on expert assessment, inherently coming with a level of uncertainty. In this research, info-gap decision theory (IGDT) is applied to model and manage such uncertainty. Surveillance of the Asian House Gecko, Hemidactylus frenatus Duméril and Bibron, 1836 on Barrow Island, is used as a case study. Our research provides a novel method for applying IGDT to determine the population threshold ( $$K$$ K ) so that the decision can be robust to the deep uncertainty present in model parameters. We further robust-optimize surveillance costs rather than minimize surveillance costs. We demonstrate that increasing the population threshold for detection increases both robustness to the errors in the model parameter estimates, and opportuneness to lower surveillance costs than the accepted maximum budget. This paper provides guidance for decision makers to balance robustness and required surveillance expenditure. IGDT offers a novel method to model and manage the uncertainty prevalent in biodiversity conservation practices and modelling. The method outlined here can be used to design robust surveillance systems for invasive species in a wider context, and to better tackle uncertainty in protection of biodiversity and native species in a cost-effective manner.
format	article
author	Yang Liu Penghao Wang Melissa L. Thomas Dan Zheng Simon J. McKirdy
author_facet	Yang Liu Penghao Wang Melissa L. Thomas Dan Zheng Simon J. McKirdy
author_sort	Yang Liu
title	Cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory
title_short	Cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory
title_full	Cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory
title_fullStr	Cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory
title_full_unstemmed	Cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory
title_sort	cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f856f61faad54f20938283a1c63d2f72
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Cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory

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