Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China

Abstract Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the d...

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Autores principales:	Junwen Tao, Yue Ma, Caiying Luo, Jiaqi Huang, Tao Zhang, Fei Yin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f882600bb2ff49e0b039b9de4449c98e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f882600bb2ff49e0b039b9de4449c98e2021-12-02T14:01:37ZSummary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China10.1038/s41598-020-80201-82045-2322https://doaj.org/article/f882600bb2ff49e0b039b9de4449c98e2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80201-8https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the development of COVID-19 before and after the emergency response took effect. We found that the number of confirmed cases peaked 9–14 days after the first detection of an imported case, but there was a peak lag in the province where the outbreak was concentrated. Results of the growth curves indicated that the fitted cumulative confirmed cases were close to the actual observed cases, and the R 2 of all models was above 0.95. The average growth rate decreased by 44.42% nationally and by 32.5% outside Hubei Province. The average growth rate in the 12 high-risk areas decreased by 29.9%. The average growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases decreased by approximately 50% after the emergency response. Areas with frequent population migration have a high risk of outbreak. The emergency response taken by the Chinese government was able to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study provides references for other countries and regions to control the COVID-19 outbreak.Junwen TaoYue MaCaiying LuoJiaqi HuangTao ZhangFei YinNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Junwen Tao Yue Ma Caiying Luo Jiaqi Huang Tao Zhang Fei Yin Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China
description	Abstract Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the development of COVID-19 before and after the emergency response took effect. We found that the number of confirmed cases peaked 9–14 days after the first detection of an imported case, but there was a peak lag in the province where the outbreak was concentrated. Results of the growth curves indicated that the fitted cumulative confirmed cases were close to the actual observed cases, and the R 2 of all models was above 0.95. The average growth rate decreased by 44.42% nationally and by 32.5% outside Hubei Province. The average growth rate in the 12 high-risk areas decreased by 29.9%. The average growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases decreased by approximately 50% after the emergency response. Areas with frequent population migration have a high risk of outbreak. The emergency response taken by the Chinese government was able to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study provides references for other countries and regions to control the COVID-19 outbreak.
format	article
author	Junwen Tao Yue Ma Caiying Luo Jiaqi Huang Tao Zhang Fei Yin
author_facet	Junwen Tao Yue Ma Caiying Luo Jiaqi Huang Tao Zhang Fei Yin
author_sort	Junwen Tao
title	Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China
title_short	Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China
title_full	Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China
title_fullStr	Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China
title_full_unstemmed	Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China
title_sort	summary of the covid-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in china
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f882600bb2ff49e0b039b9de4449c98e
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Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China

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