Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition

Abstract Incorporating 50 years of flood data for the Manas River Kenswat Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2006, the Pettitt test and Mann–Kendall trend test are used to analyse non‐stationarity of the flood characteristic sequences. Moreover, the Pearson type‐III (P‐III) distribution, the mixed di...

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Autores principales:	Chaofei He, Fulong Chen, Yixuan Wang, Aihua Long, Xinlin He
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Wiley 2021
Materias:	conditional probability distribution design flood flood mixed distribution non‐stationarity River protective works. Regulation. Flood control TC530-537 Disasters and engineering TA495
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f8fc121ffb48425297c870ee09ed90aa
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f8fc121ffb48425297c870ee09ed90aa2021-11-11T05:32:09ZFlood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition1753-318X10.1111/jfr3.12745https://doaj.org/article/f8fc121ffb48425297c870ee09ed90aa2021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12745https://doaj.org/toc/1753-318XAbstract Incorporating 50 years of flood data for the Manas River Kenswat Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2006, the Pettitt test and Mann–Kendall trend test are used to analyse non‐stationarity of the flood characteristic sequences. Moreover, the Pearson type‐III (P‐III) distribution, the mixed distribution (MD) and conditional probability distribution (CPD) models are employed to analyse frequency and to calculate the design flood process line. The results showed that the annual maximum peak discharge and the annual maximum flood volume are most likely to change in 1993. The MD model considering the non‐stationarity of the flood sequence is more accurate than the CPD model and the traditional P‐III distribution model. There are significant differences in the design flood process lines of the 1996 typical flood process obtained by the three methods using the same frequency scaling method. In addition, under different design standards, the design value of the MD model is 20–53% smaller than the design value approved in 2008 (approved by China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute) and 4–48% higher than the traditional P‐III distribution design value. The results can provide a new reference for the management of non‐stationary floods in Manas River.Chaofei HeFulong ChenYixuan WangAihua LongXinlin HeWileyarticleconditional probability distributiondesign floodfloodmixed distributionnon‐stationarityRiver protective works. Regulation. Flood controlTC530-537Disasters and engineeringTA495ENJournal of Flood Risk Management, Vol 14, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	conditional probability distribution design flood flood mixed distribution non‐stationarity River protective works. Regulation. Flood control TC530-537 Disasters and engineering TA495
spellingShingle	conditional probability distribution design flood flood mixed distribution non‐stationarity River protective works. Regulation. Flood control TC530-537 Disasters and engineering TA495 Chaofei He Fulong Chen Yixuan Wang Aihua Long Xinlin He Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition
description	Abstract Incorporating 50 years of flood data for the Manas River Kenswat Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2006, the Pettitt test and Mann–Kendall trend test are used to analyse non‐stationarity of the flood characteristic sequences. Moreover, the Pearson type‐III (P‐III) distribution, the mixed distribution (MD) and conditional probability distribution (CPD) models are employed to analyse frequency and to calculate the design flood process line. The results showed that the annual maximum peak discharge and the annual maximum flood volume are most likely to change in 1993. The MD model considering the non‐stationarity of the flood sequence is more accurate than the CPD model and the traditional P‐III distribution model. There are significant differences in the design flood process lines of the 1996 typical flood process obtained by the three methods using the same frequency scaling method. In addition, under different design standards, the design value of the MD model is 20–53% smaller than the design value approved in 2008 (approved by China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute) and 4–48% higher than the traditional P‐III distribution design value. The results can provide a new reference for the management of non‐stationary floods in Manas River.
format	article
author	Chaofei He Fulong Chen Yixuan Wang Aihua Long Xinlin He
author_facet	Chaofei He Fulong Chen Yixuan Wang Aihua Long Xinlin He
author_sort	Chaofei He
title	Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition
title_short	Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition
title_full	Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition
title_fullStr	Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition
title_full_unstemmed	Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition
title_sort	flood frequency analysis of manas river basin in china under non‐stationary condition
publisher	Wiley
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f8fc121ffb48425297c870ee09ed90aa
work_keys_str_mv	AT chaofeihe floodfrequencyanalysisofmanasriverbasininchinaundernonstationarycondition AT fulongchen floodfrequencyanalysisofmanasriverbasininchinaundernonstationarycondition AT yixuanwang floodfrequencyanalysisofmanasriverbasininchinaundernonstationarycondition AT aihualong floodfrequencyanalysisofmanasriverbasininchinaundernonstationarycondition AT xinlinhe floodfrequencyanalysisofmanasriverbasininchinaundernonstationarycondition
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Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition

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