A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting

Abstract Background The long-term outcomes for patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have been received more and more concern. The existing prediction models are mostly focused on in-hospital operative mortality after CABG, but there is still little research on long-term mortality pr...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	HuanRui Zhang, Wen Tian, YuJiao Sun
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Coronary artery bypass grafting Mortality Critically ill Prediction model Nomogram Surgery RD1-811
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f991e35215b346f0a29ae7f330c0496a
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:f991e35215b346f0a29ae7f330c0496a
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f991e35215b346f0a29ae7f330c0496a2021-12-05T12:06:27ZA novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting10.1186/s12893-021-01408-81471-2482https://doaj.org/article/f991e35215b346f0a29ae7f330c0496a2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12893-021-01408-8https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2482Abstract Background The long-term outcomes for patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have been received more and more concern. The existing prediction models are mostly focused on in-hospital operative mortality after CABG, but there is still little research on long-term mortality prediction model for patients after CABG. Objective To develop and validate a novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after CABG. Methods Data for developing novel predictive model were extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive cart III (MIMIC-III), of which 2929 critically ill patients who underwent CABG at the first admission were enrolled. Results A novel prognostic nomogram for 3-year mortality was constructed with the seven independent prognostic factors, including age, congestive heart failure, white blood cell, creatinine, SpO2, anion gap, and continuous renal replacement treatment derived from the multivariable logistic regression. The nomogram indicated accurate discrimination in primary (AUC: 0.81) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.802), which were better than traditional severity scores. And good consistency between the predictive and observed outcome was showed by the calibration curve for 3-year mortality. The decision curve analysis also showed higher clinical net benefit than traditional severity scores. Conclusion The novel nomogram had well performance to predict 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after CABG. The prediction model provided valuable information for treatment strategy and postdischarge management, which may be helpful in improving the long-term prognosis in critically ill patients after CABG.HuanRui ZhangWen TianYuJiao SunBMCarticleCoronary artery bypass graftingMortalityCritically illPrediction modelNomogramSurgeryRD1-811ENBMC Surgery, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Coronary artery bypass grafting Mortality Critically ill Prediction model Nomogram Surgery RD1-811
spellingShingle	Coronary artery bypass grafting Mortality Critically ill Prediction model Nomogram Surgery RD1-811 HuanRui Zhang Wen Tian YuJiao Sun A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting
description	Abstract Background The long-term outcomes for patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have been received more and more concern. The existing prediction models are mostly focused on in-hospital operative mortality after CABG, but there is still little research on long-term mortality prediction model for patients after CABG. Objective To develop and validate a novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after CABG. Methods Data for developing novel predictive model were extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive cart III (MIMIC-III), of which 2929 critically ill patients who underwent CABG at the first admission were enrolled. Results A novel prognostic nomogram for 3-year mortality was constructed with the seven independent prognostic factors, including age, congestive heart failure, white blood cell, creatinine, SpO2, anion gap, and continuous renal replacement treatment derived from the multivariable logistic regression. The nomogram indicated accurate discrimination in primary (AUC: 0.81) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.802), which were better than traditional severity scores. And good consistency between the predictive and observed outcome was showed by the calibration curve for 3-year mortality. The decision curve analysis also showed higher clinical net benefit than traditional severity scores. Conclusion The novel nomogram had well performance to predict 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after CABG. The prediction model provided valuable information for treatment strategy and postdischarge management, which may be helpful in improving the long-term prognosis in critically ill patients after CABG.
format	article
author	HuanRui Zhang Wen Tian YuJiao Sun
author_facet	HuanRui Zhang Wen Tian YuJiao Sun
author_sort	HuanRui Zhang
title	A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting
title_short	A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting
title_full	A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting
title_fullStr	A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting
title_full_unstemmed	A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting
title_sort	novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/f991e35215b346f0a29ae7f330c0496a
work_keys_str_mv	AT huanruizhang anovelnomogramforpredicting3yearmortalityincriticallyillpatientsaftercoronaryarterybypassgrafting AT wentian anovelnomogramforpredicting3yearmortalityincriticallyillpatientsaftercoronaryarterybypassgrafting AT yujiaosun anovelnomogramforpredicting3yearmortalityincriticallyillpatientsaftercoronaryarterybypassgrafting AT huanruizhang novelnomogramforpredicting3yearmortalityincriticallyillpatientsaftercoronaryarterybypassgrafting AT wentian novelnomogramforpredicting3yearmortalityincriticallyillpatientsaftercoronaryarterybypassgrafting AT yujiaosun novelnomogramforpredicting3yearmortalityincriticallyillpatientsaftercoronaryarterybypassgrafting
_version_	1718372293144477696

A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting

Ejemplares similares