Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.

The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these paramete...

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Autores principales:	David McMillon, Carl P Simon, Jeffrey Morenoff
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/f9c8dbc946014bb48271c8ad93613a78
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:f9c8dbc946014bb48271c8ad93613a782021-11-18T08:25:22ZModeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0088923https://doaj.org/article/f9c8dbc946014bb48271c8ad93613a782014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24694545/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters--patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars--we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.David McMillonCarl P SimonJeffrey MorenoffPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 4, p e88923 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q David McMillon Carl P Simon Jeffrey Morenoff Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.
description	The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters--patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars--we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.
format	article
author	David McMillon Carl P Simon Jeffrey Morenoff
author_facet	David McMillon Carl P Simon Jeffrey Morenoff
author_sort	David McMillon
title	Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.
title_short	Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.
title_full	Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.
title_fullStr	Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.
title_sort	modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/f9c8dbc946014bb48271c8ad93613a78
work_keys_str_mv	AT davidmcmillon modelingtheunderlyingdynamicsofthespreadofcrime AT carlpsimon modelingtheunderlyingdynamicsofthespreadofcrime AT jeffreymorenoff modelingtheunderlyingdynamicsofthespreadofcrime
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Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.

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