Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity

Abstract Since Chaney’s report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2—from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C or greater —remains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cau...

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Autores principales:	Xiaoming Hu, Patrick C. Taylor, Ming Cai, Song Yang, Yi Deng, Sergio Sejas
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fa9713325d1d4bcb9e6e718e9cbd378d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fa9713325d1d4bcb9e6e718e9cbd378d2021-12-02T15:06:17ZInter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity10.1038/s41598-017-04623-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/fa9713325d1d4bcb9e6e718e9cbd378d2017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04623-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Since Chaney’s report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2—from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C or greater —remains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models’ intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits influence the warming response in opposing manners, resulting in a weaker correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. Our study indicates that a better understanding of the diversity amongst climate model mean states may help to narrow down the range of global warming projections.Xiaoming HuPatrick C. TaylorMing CaiSong YangYi DengSergio SejasNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Xiaoming Hu Patrick C. Taylor Ming Cai Song Yang Yi Deng Sergio Sejas Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity
description	Abstract Since Chaney’s report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2—from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C or greater —remains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models’ intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits influence the warming response in opposing manners, resulting in a weaker correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. Our study indicates that a better understanding of the diversity amongst climate model mean states may help to narrow down the range of global warming projections.
format	article
author	Xiaoming Hu Patrick C. Taylor Ming Cai Song Yang Yi Deng Sergio Sejas
author_facet	Xiaoming Hu Patrick C. Taylor Ming Cai Song Yang Yi Deng Sergio Sejas
author_sort	Xiaoming Hu
title	Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity
title_short	Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity
title_full	Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity
title_fullStr	Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity
title_full_unstemmed	Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity
title_sort	inter-model warming projection spread: inherited traits from control climate diversity
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/fa9713325d1d4bcb9e6e718e9cbd378d
work_keys_str_mv	AT xiaominghu intermodelwarmingprojectionspreadinheritedtraitsfromcontrolclimatediversity AT patrickctaylor intermodelwarmingprojectionspreadinheritedtraitsfromcontrolclimatediversity AT mingcai intermodelwarmingprojectionspreadinheritedtraitsfromcontrolclimatediversity AT songyang intermodelwarmingprojectionspreadinheritedtraitsfromcontrolclimatediversity AT yideng intermodelwarmingprojectionspreadinheritedtraitsfromcontrolclimatediversity AT sergiosejas intermodelwarmingprojectionspreadinheritedtraitsfromcontrolclimatediversity
_version_	1718388555539021824

Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity

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