Can the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study

In this rapidly changing and fast-growing world, sustainability is an important paradigm. However, the constantly growing level of uncertainty leads to increased strain in decision making. This results in a growing need for a more effective and extensive approach for identifying project risk in part...

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Autores principales:	Thordur Vikingur Fridgeirsson, Helgi Thor Ingason, Svana Helen Björnsdottir, Agnes Yr Gunnarsdottir
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	project management risk management risk identification risk assessment VUCA Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fb3c9514ad714d6b8f919fa7714ab82a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fb3c9514ad714d6b8f919fa7714ab82a2021-11-25T19:04:12ZCan the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study10.3390/su1322127692071-1050https://doaj.org/article/fb3c9514ad714d6b8f919fa7714ab82a2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/22/12769https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050In this rapidly changing and fast-growing world, sustainability is an important paradigm. However, the constantly growing level of uncertainty leads to increased strain in decision making. This results in a growing need for a more effective and extensive approach for identifying project risk in particular events that are not easily detected but can have a severe impact, sometimes referred to as Black Swans or “fat tail” events. The VUCA meter is a normative approach to identify project risk by assessing in a structured way events that may be volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous and might contribute to the project risk. In this study, the VUCA meter is benchmarked against a traditional risk identification process as recommended by PMI<sup>®</sup>. Firstly, two workshops, each referring to the respective risk identification method, were conducted. Secondly, a Delphi survey was run to investigate if the VUCA meter would capture Black Swan risk events that are bypassed by the traditional risk identification approach. The results clearly indicate that the VUCA meter can be developed to be a significant addition to the conventional risk identification process for large projects that are at an early stage. The VUCA meter facilitates a discussion that gets people to think beyond the traditional framework for identifying project risk factors. As a consequence, “fat tail” events, that are not apprehended with the conventional technique, are captured by the VUCA meter.Thordur Vikingur FridgeirssonHelgi Thor IngasonSvana Helen BjörnsdottirAgnes Yr GunnarsdottirMDPI AGarticleproject managementrisk managementrisk identificationrisk assessmentVUCAEnvironmental effects of industries and plantsTD194-195Renewable energy sourcesTJ807-830Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENSustainability, Vol 13, Iss 12769, p 12769 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	project management risk management risk identification risk assessment VUCA Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	project management risk management risk identification risk assessment VUCA Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Thordur Vikingur Fridgeirsson Helgi Thor Ingason Svana Helen Björnsdottir Agnes Yr Gunnarsdottir Can the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study
description	In this rapidly changing and fast-growing world, sustainability is an important paradigm. However, the constantly growing level of uncertainty leads to increased strain in decision making. This results in a growing need for a more effective and extensive approach for identifying project risk in particular events that are not easily detected but can have a severe impact, sometimes referred to as Black Swans or “fat tail” events. The VUCA meter is a normative approach to identify project risk by assessing in a structured way events that may be volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous and might contribute to the project risk. In this study, the VUCA meter is benchmarked against a traditional risk identification process as recommended by PMI<sup>®</sup>. Firstly, two workshops, each referring to the respective risk identification method, were conducted. Secondly, a Delphi survey was run to investigate if the VUCA meter would capture Black Swan risk events that are bypassed by the traditional risk identification approach. The results clearly indicate that the VUCA meter can be developed to be a significant addition to the conventional risk identification process for large projects that are at an early stage. The VUCA meter facilitates a discussion that gets people to think beyond the traditional framework for identifying project risk factors. As a consequence, “fat tail” events, that are not apprehended with the conventional technique, are captured by the VUCA meter.
format	article
author	Thordur Vikingur Fridgeirsson Helgi Thor Ingason Svana Helen Björnsdottir Agnes Yr Gunnarsdottir
author_facet	Thordur Vikingur Fridgeirsson Helgi Thor Ingason Svana Helen Björnsdottir Agnes Yr Gunnarsdottir
author_sort	Thordur Vikingur Fridgeirsson
title	Can the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study
title_short	Can the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study
title_full	Can the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study
title_fullStr	Can the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study
title_full_unstemmed	Can the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study
title_sort	can the “vuca meter” augment the traditional project risk identification process? a case study
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fb3c9514ad714d6b8f919fa7714ab82a
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Can the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study

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