Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China

Guangxi is the primary producer of sugarcane in China and provides a highly suitable habitat for sugarcane growth. However, its distribution range has changed significantly in recent years due to climate change as well as human factors. Without extensive knowledge of the changing trends in suitable...

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Autores principales:	Suri Guga, Jie Xu, Dao Riao, kaiwei Li, Aru Han, Jiquan Zhang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Climate change MaxEnt model Climate suitability Landscape pattern Sugarcane Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fb5d00266b14458089ec888a49b5fa3f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fb5d00266b14458089ec888a49b5fa3f2021-12-01T04:59:44ZCombining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108152https://doaj.org/article/fb5d00266b14458089ec888a49b5fa3f2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21008177https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XGuangxi is the primary producer of sugarcane in China and provides a highly suitable habitat for sugarcane growth. However, its distribution range has changed significantly in recent years due to climate change as well as human factors. Without extensive knowledge of the changing trends in suitable sugarcane planting areas, efforts to improve its productivity in Guangxi may be insufficient. In this study, the interdecadal change in sugarcane distribution in Guangxi in response to climate change from 1960 to 2019 was estimated using the MaxEnt model and the landscape pattern of land use in the suitable sugarcane area was analyzed. In addition, we discuss the effects of global warming on sugarcane production in the sustainable development of the sugar industry in Guangxi. Our results indicate: (1) from 1960 to 2019, approximately 65% of Guangxi Province could grow sugarcane. Chongzuo City, Nanning City and Parts of Baise City, are highly suitable areas, and unsuitable areas are mainly concentrated in the north. In general, sugarcane climate suitability extended further in low-altitude areas, and then extended to high- altitude areas. However, from the 2000s to the 2010s, climate suitability showed a decreasing trend, decreasing from 16.036 × 106 ha to 15.4985 × 106 ha (2) The order of land use area in the suitable sugarcane climate range was as follows: woodland > cropland > grassland > construction land > water. With the increase in climate suitability, the distribution of cultivated land expanded. From 1980 to 2005, cropland in suitable areas showed a fragmentation trend. By 2010, the cropland patches disappeared after fragmentation. (3) Due to landscape constraints, infertile soil, and labor costs, the sugar industry faces various challenges. The evaluation of climate suitability could provide a theoretical reference for a planting layout of sugarcane, and landscape pattern analysis of suitable sugarcane climate areas is conducive to the integration of small pieces of land into large ones, making mechanization possible. Overall, strict layout and management measures are required in sugarcane planting areas.Suri GugaJie XuDao Riaokaiwei LiAru HanJiquan ZhangElsevierarticleClimate changeMaxEnt modelClimate suitabilityLandscape patternSugarcaneEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 131, Iss , Pp 108152- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Climate change MaxEnt model Climate suitability Landscape pattern Sugarcane Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Climate change MaxEnt model Climate suitability Landscape pattern Sugarcane Ecology QH540-549.5 Suri Guga Jie Xu Dao Riao kaiwei Li Aru Han Jiquan Zhang Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China
description	Guangxi is the primary producer of sugarcane in China and provides a highly suitable habitat for sugarcane growth. However, its distribution range has changed significantly in recent years due to climate change as well as human factors. Without extensive knowledge of the changing trends in suitable sugarcane planting areas, efforts to improve its productivity in Guangxi may be insufficient. In this study, the interdecadal change in sugarcane distribution in Guangxi in response to climate change from 1960 to 2019 was estimated using the MaxEnt model and the landscape pattern of land use in the suitable sugarcane area was analyzed. In addition, we discuss the effects of global warming on sugarcane production in the sustainable development of the sugar industry in Guangxi. Our results indicate: (1) from 1960 to 2019, approximately 65% of Guangxi Province could grow sugarcane. Chongzuo City, Nanning City and Parts of Baise City, are highly suitable areas, and unsuitable areas are mainly concentrated in the north. In general, sugarcane climate suitability extended further in low-altitude areas, and then extended to high- altitude areas. However, from the 2000s to the 2010s, climate suitability showed a decreasing trend, decreasing from 16.036 × 106 ha to 15.4985 × 106 ha (2) The order of land use area in the suitable sugarcane climate range was as follows: woodland > cropland > grassland > construction land > water. With the increase in climate suitability, the distribution of cultivated land expanded. From 1980 to 2005, cropland in suitable areas showed a fragmentation trend. By 2010, the cropland patches disappeared after fragmentation. (3) Due to landscape constraints, infertile soil, and labor costs, the sugar industry faces various challenges. The evaluation of climate suitability could provide a theoretical reference for a planting layout of sugarcane, and landscape pattern analysis of suitable sugarcane climate areas is conducive to the integration of small pieces of land into large ones, making mechanization possible. Overall, strict layout and management measures are required in sugarcane planting areas.
format	article
author	Suri Guga Jie Xu Dao Riao kaiwei Li Aru Han Jiquan Zhang
author_facet	Suri Guga Jie Xu Dao Riao kaiwei Li Aru Han Jiquan Zhang
author_sort	Suri Guga
title	Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China
title_short	Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China
title_full	Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China
title_fullStr	Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China
title_full_unstemmed	Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China
title_sort	combining maxent model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in guangxi, china
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fb5d00266b14458089ec888a49b5fa3f
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Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China

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