Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified...

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Autores principales:	Kylee D Dunham, Erik E Osnas, Charles J Frost, Julian B Fischer, James B Grand
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fb688ca71ad94f979c1972e68c67170c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fb688ca71ad94f979c1972e68c67170c2021-12-02T20:09:47ZAssessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0253895https://doaj.org/article/fb688ca71ad94f979c1972e68c67170c2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253895https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.Kylee D DunhamErik E OsnasCharles J FrostJulian B FischerJames B GrandPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 7, p e0253895 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Kylee D Dunham Erik E Osnas Charles J Frost Julian B Fischer James B Grand Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.
description	Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.
format	article
author	Kylee D Dunham Erik E Osnas Charles J Frost Julian B Fischer James B Grand
author_facet	Kylee D Dunham Erik E Osnas Charles J Frost Julian B Fischer James B Grand
author_sort	Kylee D Dunham
title	Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.
title_short	Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.
title_full	Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.
title_fullStr	Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.
title_full_unstemmed	Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.
title_sort	assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a bayesian decision analysis.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fb688ca71ad94f979c1972e68c67170c
work_keys_str_mv	AT kyleeddunham assessingrecoveryofspectacledeidersusingabayesiandecisionanalysis AT erikeosnas assessingrecoveryofspectacledeidersusingabayesiandecisionanalysis AT charlesjfrost assessingrecoveryofspectacledeidersusingabayesiandecisionanalysis AT julianbfischer assessingrecoveryofspectacledeidersusingabayesiandecisionanalysis AT jamesbgrand assessingrecoveryofspectacledeidersusingabayesiandecisionanalysis
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Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.

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