Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games

We study whether experts and novices differ in the way they make predictions about National Football League games. In particular, we measure to what extent their predictions are consistent with five environmental regularities that could support decision making based on heuristics. These regularities...

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Autores principales:	Lauren E. Montgomery, Michael D. Lee
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2021
Materias:	environmental regularities heuristic decision making predictions expert and novice decision making signal detection theorynakeywords Social Sciences H Psychology BF1-990
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fba3f212d85b40b6be6fbf2ec8be7e5d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fba3f212d85b40b6be6fbf2ec8be7e5d2021-11-29T22:45:19ZExpert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games1930-2975https://doaj.org/article/fba3f212d85b40b6be6fbf2ec8be7e5d2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://journal.sjdm.org/21/210729a/jdm210729a.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1930-2975We study whether experts and novices differ in the way they make predictions about National Football League games. In particular, we measure to what extent their predictions are consistent with five environmental regularities that could support decision making based on heuristics. These regularities involve the home team winning more often, the team with the better win-loss record winning more often, the team favored by the majority of media experts winning more often, and two others related to surprise wins and losses in the teams’ previous game. Using signal detection theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we show that expert predictions for the 2017 National Football League (NFL) season generally follow these regularities in a near optimal way, but novice predictions do not. These results support the idea that using heuristics adapted to the decision environment can support accurate predictions and be an indicator of expertise.Lauren E. MontgomeryMichael D. LeeSociety for Judgment and Decision Makingarticleenvironmental regularities heuristic decision making predictions expert and novice decision making signal detection theorynakeywordsSocial SciencesHPsychologyBF1-990ENJudgment and Decision Making, Vol 16, Iss 6, Pp 1370-1391 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	environmental regularities heuristic decision making predictions expert and novice decision making signal detection theorynakeywords Social Sciences H Psychology BF1-990
spellingShingle	environmental regularities heuristic decision making predictions expert and novice decision making signal detection theorynakeywords Social Sciences H Psychology BF1-990 Lauren E. Montgomery Michael D. Lee Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games
description	We study whether experts and novices differ in the way they make predictions about National Football League games. In particular, we measure to what extent their predictions are consistent with five environmental regularities that could support decision making based on heuristics. These regularities involve the home team winning more often, the team with the better win-loss record winning more often, the team favored by the majority of media experts winning more often, and two others related to surprise wins and losses in the teams’ previous game. Using signal detection theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we show that expert predictions for the 2017 National Football League (NFL) season generally follow these regularities in a near optimal way, but novice predictions do not. These results support the idea that using heuristics adapted to the decision environment can support accurate predictions and be an indicator of expertise.
format	article
author	Lauren E. Montgomery Michael D. Lee
author_facet	Lauren E. Montgomery Michael D. Lee
author_sort	Lauren E. Montgomery
title	Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games
title_short	Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games
title_full	Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games
title_fullStr	Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games
title_full_unstemmed	Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games
title_sort	expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting nfl games
publisher	Society for Judgment and Decision Making
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fba3f212d85b40b6be6fbf2ec8be7e5d
work_keys_str_mv	AT laurenemontgomery expertandnovicesensitivitytoenvironmentalregularitiesinpredictingnflgames AT michaeldlee expertandnovicesensitivitytoenvironmentalregularitiesinpredictingnflgames
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Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games

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