Present vs. Future Property Losses From a 100-Year Coastal Flood: A Case Study of Grand Isle, Louisiana

Louisiana, U.S.A., is among the world's most vulnerable places to coastal flooding. Increasing frequency/intensity of natural hazards under climate change scenarios is expected to exacerbate Louisiana's coastal flood risk. Although many factors are involved, land subsidence from marshland...

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Autores principales:	Rubayet Bin Mostafiz, Nazla Bushra, Robert V. Rohli, Carol J. Friedland, Md Adilur Rahim
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	future flood risk assessment coastal Louisiana sea level rise storm surge climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fbb21f227349482aad29936b0dc77875
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fbb21f227349482aad29936b0dc778752021-11-04T09:25:42ZPresent vs. Future Property Losses From a 100-Year Coastal Flood: A Case Study of Grand Isle, Louisiana2624-937510.3389/frwa.2021.763358https://doaj.org/article/fbb21f227349482aad29936b0dc778752021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frwa.2021.763358/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2624-9375Louisiana, U.S.A., is among the world's most vulnerable places to coastal flooding. Increasing frequency/intensity of natural hazards under climate change scenarios is expected to exacerbate Louisiana's coastal flood risk. Although many factors are involved, land subsidence from marshland compaction and underground resource extraction, shoreline erosion accelerated by eustatic sea level rise (ESLR), and tropical-cyclone-induced storm surge are among the most important. While past research has focused on flood risk assessment and mitigation strategies, including climate change scenarios, few studies examine all of these factors collectively. This study shows present pluvial flood depth and the contributions of additional coastal subsidence and ESLR toward future (2050) pluvial flooding. Then, current tropical-storm-induced storm surge and future storm surge depth modeled by Louisiana's Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) under climate change scenarios are presented. Present and future 100-year pluvial flood and storm surge losses (separately, 2020$) to structures and their contents are estimated at the individual building level for Grand Isle, Louisiana, a barrier island town of ecological, economic, historical, recreational, cultural, and aesthetic treasure. Results suggest that the average 100-year pluvial flood depth in buildings will increase by 1.35 feet by 2050, with subsidence contributing over 82% of this total. Subsidence is projected to escalate structure and content losses by ~17% above losses in 2017, while ESLR may contribute ~3% above 2017 losses. A 100-year tropical-cyclone-induced storm surge event amid a “low” scenario of environmental change as defined by CPRA would increase Grand Isle's structure and content losses by 68–74% above the 2017 value by 2027, 141–149% by 2042, and 346–359% by 2067. The (“high”) scenario of environmental change would increase the 100-year storm surge losses by 85–91% above the 2017 value by 2027, 199–218% by 2042, and 407–415% by 2067. Outcomes from this study will offer a more realistic risk assessment model and will direct flood risk managers, property owners, and other stakeholders to build a comprehensive framework to minimize future flood risk in one of the most vulnerable sites in the U.S.A. to coastal flooding.Rubayet Bin MostafizNazla BushraRobert V. RohliRobert V. RohliCarol J. FriedlandMd Adilur RahimFrontiers Media S.A.articlefuture floodrisk assessmentcoastal Louisianasea level risestorm surgeclimate changeEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066ENFrontiers in Water, Vol 3 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	future flood risk assessment coastal Louisiana sea level rise storm surge climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
spellingShingle	future flood risk assessment coastal Louisiana sea level rise storm surge climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Rubayet Bin Mostafiz Nazla Bushra Robert V. Rohli Robert V. Rohli Carol J. Friedland Md Adilur Rahim Present vs. Future Property Losses From a 100-Year Coastal Flood: A Case Study of Grand Isle, Louisiana
description	Louisiana, U.S.A., is among the world's most vulnerable places to coastal flooding. Increasing frequency/intensity of natural hazards under climate change scenarios is expected to exacerbate Louisiana's coastal flood risk. Although many factors are involved, land subsidence from marshland compaction and underground resource extraction, shoreline erosion accelerated by eustatic sea level rise (ESLR), and tropical-cyclone-induced storm surge are among the most important. While past research has focused on flood risk assessment and mitigation strategies, including climate change scenarios, few studies examine all of these factors collectively. This study shows present pluvial flood depth and the contributions of additional coastal subsidence and ESLR toward future (2050) pluvial flooding. Then, current tropical-storm-induced storm surge and future storm surge depth modeled by Louisiana's Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) under climate change scenarios are presented. Present and future 100-year pluvial flood and storm surge losses (separately, 2020$) to structures and their contents are estimated at the individual building level for Grand Isle, Louisiana, a barrier island town of ecological, economic, historical, recreational, cultural, and aesthetic treasure. Results suggest that the average 100-year pluvial flood depth in buildings will increase by 1.35 feet by 2050, with subsidence contributing over 82% of this total. Subsidence is projected to escalate structure and content losses by ~17% above losses in 2017, while ESLR may contribute ~3% above 2017 losses. A 100-year tropical-cyclone-induced storm surge event amid a “low” scenario of environmental change as defined by CPRA would increase Grand Isle's structure and content losses by 68–74% above the 2017 value by 2027, 141–149% by 2042, and 346–359% by 2067. The (“high”) scenario of environmental change would increase the 100-year storm surge losses by 85–91% above the 2017 value by 2027, 199–218% by 2042, and 407–415% by 2067. Outcomes from this study will offer a more realistic risk assessment model and will direct flood risk managers, property owners, and other stakeholders to build a comprehensive framework to minimize future flood risk in one of the most vulnerable sites in the U.S.A. to coastal flooding.
format	article
author	Rubayet Bin Mostafiz Nazla Bushra Robert V. Rohli Robert V. Rohli Carol J. Friedland Md Adilur Rahim
author_facet	Rubayet Bin Mostafiz Nazla Bushra Robert V. Rohli Robert V. Rohli Carol J. Friedland Md Adilur Rahim
author_sort	Rubayet Bin Mostafiz
title	Present vs. Future Property Losses From a 100-Year Coastal Flood: A Case Study of Grand Isle, Louisiana
title_short	Present vs. Future Property Losses From a 100-Year Coastal Flood: A Case Study of Grand Isle, Louisiana
title_full	Present vs. Future Property Losses From a 100-Year Coastal Flood: A Case Study of Grand Isle, Louisiana
title_fullStr	Present vs. Future Property Losses From a 100-Year Coastal Flood: A Case Study of Grand Isle, Louisiana
title_full_unstemmed	Present vs. Future Property Losses From a 100-Year Coastal Flood: A Case Study of Grand Isle, Louisiana
title_sort	present vs. future property losses from a 100-year coastal flood: a case study of grand isle, louisiana
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fbb21f227349482aad29936b0dc77875
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Present vs. Future Property Losses From a 100-Year Coastal Flood: A Case Study of Grand Isle, Louisiana

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