On topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics

Abstract The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused more than 80 million confirmed infected cases and more than 1.8 million people died as of 31 December 2020. While it is essential to quantify risk and characterize transmission dynamics in closed populations using Susceptible-Infe...

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Autores principales:	Mike K. P. So, Amanda M. Y. Chu, Agnes Tiwari, Jacky N. L. Chan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fbcff1f4ca4b455d86aca1cb06c77886
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fbcff1f4ca4b455d86aca1cb06c778862021-12-02T13:35:04ZOn topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics10.1038/s41598-021-84094-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/fbcff1f4ca4b455d86aca1cb06c778862021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84094-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused more than 80 million confirmed infected cases and more than 1.8 million people died as of 31 December 2020. While it is essential to quantify risk and characterize transmission dynamics in closed populations using Susceptible-Infection-Recovered modeling, the investigation of the effect from worldwide pandemic cannot be neglected. This study proposes a network analysis to assess global pandemic risk by linking 164 countries in pandemic networks, where links between countries were specified by the level of ‘co-movement’ of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. More countries showing increase in the COVID-19 cases simultaneously will signal the pandemic prevalent over the world. The network density, clustering coefficients, and assortativity in the pandemic networks provide early warning signals of the pandemic in late February 2020. We propose a preparedness pandemic risk score for prediction and a severity risk score for pandemic control. The preparedness risk score contributed by countries in Asia is between 25% and 50% most of the time after February and America contributes around 40% in July 2020. The high preparedness risk contribution implies the importance of travel restrictions between those countries. The severity risk score of America and Europe contribute around 90% in December 2020, signifying that the control of COVID-19 is still worrying in America and Europe. We can keep track of the pandemic situation in each country using an online dashboard to update the pandemic risk scores and contributions.Mike K. P. SoAmanda M. Y. ChuAgnes TiwariJacky N. L. ChanNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Mike K. P. So Amanda M. Y. Chu Agnes Tiwari Jacky N. L. Chan On topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics
description	Abstract The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused more than 80 million confirmed infected cases and more than 1.8 million people died as of 31 December 2020. While it is essential to quantify risk and characterize transmission dynamics in closed populations using Susceptible-Infection-Recovered modeling, the investigation of the effect from worldwide pandemic cannot be neglected. This study proposes a network analysis to assess global pandemic risk by linking 164 countries in pandemic networks, where links between countries were specified by the level of ‘co-movement’ of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. More countries showing increase in the COVID-19 cases simultaneously will signal the pandemic prevalent over the world. The network density, clustering coefficients, and assortativity in the pandemic networks provide early warning signals of the pandemic in late February 2020. We propose a preparedness pandemic risk score for prediction and a severity risk score for pandemic control. The preparedness risk score contributed by countries in Asia is between 25% and 50% most of the time after February and America contributes around 40% in July 2020. The high preparedness risk contribution implies the importance of travel restrictions between those countries. The severity risk score of America and Europe contribute around 90% in December 2020, signifying that the control of COVID-19 is still worrying in America and Europe. We can keep track of the pandemic situation in each country using an online dashboard to update the pandemic risk scores and contributions.
format	article
author	Mike K. P. So Amanda M. Y. Chu Agnes Tiwari Jacky N. L. Chan
author_facet	Mike K. P. So Amanda M. Y. Chu Agnes Tiwari Jacky N. L. Chan
author_sort	Mike K. P. So
title	On topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics
title_short	On topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics
title_full	On topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics
title_fullStr	On topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics
title_full_unstemmed	On topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics
title_sort	on topological properties of covid-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fbcff1f4ca4b455d86aca1cb06c77886
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On topological properties of COVID-19: predicting and assessing pandemic risk with network statistics

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