Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.

This paper develops a methodology for the assessment of the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity. The methodology combines labor market data with simulation of an agent-based model. We apply our methodology to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile. We recover the model param...

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Autores principales:	Constanza Fosco, Felipe Zurita
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fc03c20eec8547c6916d8fa6cb8bd6e9
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:fc03c20eec8547c6916d8fa6cb8bd6e9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fc03c20eec8547c6916d8fa6cb8bd6e92021-12-02T20:15:48ZAssessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0252938https://doaj.org/article/fc03c20eec8547c6916d8fa6cb8bd6e92021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252938https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203This paper develops a methodology for the assessment of the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity. The methodology combines labor market data with simulation of an agent-based model. We apply our methodology to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile. We recover the model parameters from observed data, taking into account the recurring policy adjustments that characterized the study window. The model is used to build counterfactual scenarios. We estimate an 8 percent output loss in the first 5 months of the pandemic from the policy that was put in place, achieving a 56 percent reduction in the total number of infections. During this period, with an output loss to 10.5 percent of GDP, the infection rate would have decreased 92 percent, significantly delaying the spread of COVID and spike in infections. Our methodology applied to real data provided results that could be valuable in guiding policies in other lockdown situations in times of disaster, pandemics or social upheaval.Constanza FoscoFelipe ZuritaPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0252938 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Constanza Fosco Felipe Zurita Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.
description	This paper develops a methodology for the assessment of the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity. The methodology combines labor market data with simulation of an agent-based model. We apply our methodology to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile. We recover the model parameters from observed data, taking into account the recurring policy adjustments that characterized the study window. The model is used to build counterfactual scenarios. We estimate an 8 percent output loss in the first 5 months of the pandemic from the policy that was put in place, achieving a 56 percent reduction in the total number of infections. During this period, with an output loss to 10.5 percent of GDP, the infection rate would have decreased 92 percent, significantly delaying the spread of COVID and spike in infections. Our methodology applied to real data provided results that could be valuable in guiding policies in other lockdown situations in times of disaster, pandemics or social upheaval.
format	article
author	Constanza Fosco Felipe Zurita
author_facet	Constanza Fosco Felipe Zurita
author_sort	Constanza Fosco
title	Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.
title_short	Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.
title_full	Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.
title_fullStr	Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.
title_full_unstemmed	Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.
title_sort	assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the santiago metropolitan region, chile.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fc03c20eec8547c6916d8fa6cb8bd6e9
work_keys_str_mv	AT constanzafosco assessingtheshortruneffectsoflockdownpoliciesoneconomicactivitywithanapplicationtothesantiagometropolitanregionchile AT felipezurita assessingtheshortruneffectsoflockdownpoliciesoneconomicactivitywithanapplicationtothesantiagometropolitanregionchile
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Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.

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